AGMK vs Buxoro: match statistics
AGMK vs Buxoro: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AGMK played Buxoro in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The match was played on 17 April 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
AGMK: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Buxoro: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
AGMK scores 1.00 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Buxoro scores 1.43 and concedes 0.86. League average: 2.44 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AGMK 57%, Buxoro 57%. Over 2.5: AGMK 43%, Buxoro 29%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Buxoro has higher xG: 1.33 vs 1.29. AGMK: 10.3 shots per match, Buxoro: 11.3.
Match halves
AGMK: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.43. Buxoro: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.86.
Goals by minute
AGMK: 31-45+ (2 goals). Buxoro: 46-60 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uzbekistan Super League: 2.44 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back an away win for Buxoro. The numbers support this: Buxoro sits 4th in the table versus AGMK’s 9th, has 4 wins this season compared to the hosts’ 2, and has scored 10 goals versus 7. Additionally, the visitors have conceded only 6 goals this season versus 9 for AGMK, and away they haven’t had a match without scoring (0% matches without a goal), while AGMK have yet to win at home (0% home wins) and failed to score in 33% of their home games. On the other hand, AGMK create more chances at home — home xG is 1.57 with an average of 4.67 shots on target per match versus Buxoro’s 1.10 xG and 3.0 shots on target on the road — which suggests the hosts can be dangerous. Both teams share the same average points over the last 5 matches (1.6 points per game), but the better win and goal record of the visitors (4 wins; goal difference 10–6) leads me to predict a narrow Buxoro victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
A strong BTTS signal stems from form: both AGMK and Buxoro have 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches, while seasonally Buxoro records 67% BTTS versus AGMK’s 50%. Goal-related metrics show AGMK generates 1.51 xG and 5.5 shots on target per match with a 15% conversion, whereas Buxoro posts 1.10 xG and only 3.0 shots on target with a 9% conversion; simultaneously Buxoro concedes 1.33 goals away with an xG against of 1.59. Although AGMK has a low seasonal home goals-against average of 0.5 and 50% clean sheets expected, in the last 5 matches the home side has conceded 1.4 on average and scored 1.4, which increases the likelihood both teams score. Considering the combined offensive xG of 2.61 (1.51+1.10), the league average goals of 2.45 and recent 80% BTTS runs, I rate the “BTTS - Yes” scenario at 75% versus 25% for “No Goal.”
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and form analysis suggest a combined expected goals total of around 2.75: home xG is 1.51 versus Buxoro’s defensive average xG conceded of 1.59 (forecast for AGMK ≈1.55), while Buxoro xG is 1.10 against AGMK’s defense 1.30 giving ≈1.20; sum ≈2.75. AGMK scores on average 1.75 goals this season, records 5.5 shots on target and has a 15% conversion rate, whereas Buxoro has 1.0 goals, 3.0 shots on target and 9% conversion — this increases the likelihood of home goals. Season-to-date Over 1.5 rates are 75% (AGMK) and 67% (Buxoro), and a Poisson model with λ=2.75 yields Over 1.5 ≈76%, hence high confidence for Over 1.5. Over 2.5 shows mixed signals (seasonal 25%/33%), but AGMK’s last 5 matches show 60% Over 2.5, which together with projected xG raises the chance to about 52%. Over 3.5 looks unlikely (seasonal Over 3.5 25%/33% and forecast 2.75 < 3.5), so the best bet is the Over line at 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The hosts led at half-time in 3 of their 4 home matches (75%) and average 0.75 goals by the break while conceding 0.25, whereas Buxoro have never led at half-time on the road (0%) and drew in 2 of 3 away fixtures (67%). Over 90 minutes AGMK win 75% of home games, score an average of 1.75 goals and concede 0.5, and their xG is 1.51 versus the visitors’ 1.10, giving the hosts a qualitative advantage. Additionally the hosts have more shots on target (5.5 vs 3.0) and a higher conversion rate (15% conversion versus Buxoro’s 9%), which increases the chance of maintaining a lead at the break. On this basis the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1) — I assign it a 43% probability; alternatives are a half-time draw with a later home win (X/1, 15%) or draw/draw (X/X, 14%), since a draw at half is common for Buxoro but AGMK’s overall strength favors a turnaround in the second half.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AGMK | Buxoro | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Buxoro is 43% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - AGMK · 1.43 goals / match - Buxoro
Buxoro is 50% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - AGMK · 0.86 goals / match - Buxoro
AGMK scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Buxoro keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
Buxoro scores in 100% of matches (7 of 7 matches), while AGMK keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AGMK
Over / Under - Buxoro
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AGMK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 29%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Buxoro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AGMK
Buxoro
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| AGMK | Liga | Buxoro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.29 | 2.44 | ▼ 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 49% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 47% | ▼ 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 27% | ▲ 43% |
| Goal before half-time | • 71% | 70% | • 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 79% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): AGMK 2 - 0 - 0 Buxoro. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AGMK vs Buxoro?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished AGMK 3:2 Buxoro. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between AGMK and Buxoro?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches AGMK won 2, Buxoro won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before AGMK vs Buxoro?
AGMK score 1.00 goals per game on average and Buxoro 1.43. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 57% of AGMK's matches and 57% of Buxoro's.
What form are AGMK and Buxoro in?
Over the last 5 games AGMK have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Buxoro 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AGMK vs Buxoro?
The statistical background for AGMK vs Buxoro — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.