AGMK vs Neftchi: match statistics
AGMK vs Neftchi: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AGMK played Neftchi in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
AGMK: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Neftchi: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
AGMK scores 1.40 and concedes 1.40 goals per match. Neftchi scores 2.50 and concedes 0.30. League average: 2.63 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AGMK 70%, Neftchi 20%. Over 2.5: AGMK 60%, Neftchi 70%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Neftchi has higher xG: 1.88 vs 1.43. AGMK: 11.8 shots per match, Neftchi: 16.1.
Match halves
AGMK: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.80. Neftchi: half-time lead 70%, second-half goals 1.30.
Goals by minute
AGMK: 0-15 (3 goals). Neftchi: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uzbekistan Super League: 2.63 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Neftchi is the clear favorite: they sit 1st and have won 9 of 10 matches this season (9-0-1), scoring 25 goals (2.5 per match) versus AGMK, who have 4 wins and 14 goals. On the road Neftchi average 2.5 goals, have 100% win rate and 100% clean sheets away, while AGMK at home average 1.6 goals scored and concede 1.4 on average (clean sheets 0%). The visitors generate better quality chances: Neftchi’s away xG is 2.06 versus 1.65 xG for AGMK at home; Neftchi also average 7.5 shots on target (17.25 total) vs 4.6 on target (14 total) for the hosts, and a conversion rate of 14% vs 11%. Although AGMK are on a 3 wins and 2 draws run in their last 5 (2.2 points per game), Neftchi’s superiority in attack, defense and chance quality (averaging 2.4 points per game in their last 5) supports predicting an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal is Neftchi’s defense: they have 100% clean sheets and 0% BTTS this season, and in the last 5 matches they concede only 0.4 goals on average, indicating they rarely allow a goal. AGMK had BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, but only 33% across the season and conceded 1.4 goals on average in those five games, so the home side have recently both scored and conceded. Offensive metrics confirm expected chances: xG 2.06 for Neftchi versus 1.75 for AGMK and 7.5 shots on target vs 5.17; seasonally Neftchi have 25 goals scored and only 3 conceded, while AGMK have 14 scored and 14 conceded. Although both teams average 2.5 goals per match, Neftchi’s defensive consistency (0% BTTS, 100% clean sheets and only 0.4 average conceded in the last 5) is a stronger signal than the hosts’ short-term trend. Therefore I tip No BTTS ('no') with a 75% probability versus 25% for 'yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG for both teams is 1.75 + 2.06 = 3.81, and after adjusting for opponents' defensive xG (0.91 for AGMK and 0.97 for Neftchi) I estimate expected goals of about 1.36 for AGMK and 1.49 for Neftchi (total 2.85). Both teams score an average of 2.5 goals per match (AGMK 2.5, Neftchi 2.5), and historically more than 1.5 goals occurred in 83% of AGMK’s matches and 75% of Neftchi’s matches, which strongly supports Over 1.5. Neftchi registers more shots on target (7.5 SOT vs 5.17) and has a higher xG_for 2.06 vs 1.75, with conversion rates of 16% (AGMK) and 14% (Neftchi), so both sides create clear scoring opportunities. Combining the expected 2.85 goals with seasonal over 2.5 stats (AGMK 83%, Neftchi 50%) yields a moderately strong signal for Over 2.5 (~70%), but the strongest and most reliable signal remains Over 1.5 (≈90%), while Over 3.5 looks unlikely (~32%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Neftchi appears to be the clear favorite: they have a 100% win rate (winPercentage_away = 100%), led at the break in 4 of 4 matches (leadingAtHT_away = 4.0, leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 100%) and have not conceded this season (seasonConcededAVG_away = 0.0, seasonCSPercentage_away = 100%), so it is highly likely the visitors will have the lead at Half-Time and carry that through to a Full-Time victory. Neftchi’s superiority is supported by xG of 2.06 versus the hosts’ 1.75 (xg_for_avg_away = 2.06 vs xg_for_avg_home = 1.75) and an average of 7.5 shots on target compared to 5.17 (shotsOnTargetAVG_away = 7.5 vs shotsOnTargetAVG_home = 5.17), indicating more high-quality chances for the away side. AGMK also scores frequently (seasonScoredAVG_home = 2.5) and led at the break in 3 of 6 matches (leadingAtHT_home = 3.0, leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 50%), but concedes on average 0.5 goals per game (seasonConcededAVG_home = 0.5) and has a lower xG, so a turnaround after the interval seems less likely. Given the visitors’ 100% clean sheets and 0% BTTS rate (seasonCSPercentage_away = 100.0, seasonBTTSPercentage_away = 0.0), I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 scenario (50%), 12% each to X/2 and 2/X, and consider all other HT/FT outcomes unlikely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AGMK | Neftchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Neftchi is 9% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - AGMK · 2.4 pts / match - Neftchi
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Neftchi is 79% better for: goals scored per match.
1.4 goals / match - AGMK · 2.5 goals / match - Neftchi
Neftchi is 367% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.4 goals / match - AGMK · 0.3 goals / match - Neftchi
AGMK scores in 80% of matches (8 of 10 matches), while Neftchi keeps a clean sheet in 70% (7 of 10 matches).
Neftchi scores in 90% of matches (9 of 10 matches), while AGMK keeps a clean sheet in 10% (1 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AGMK
Over / Under - Neftchi
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Neftchi is 77% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.3 pts / match - AGMK · 2.3 pts / match - Neftchi
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AGMK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Neftchi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 70% of matches and wins 90%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AGMK
Neftchi
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| AGMK | Liga | Neftchi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.80 | 2.63 | ▲ 2.80 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 70% | 55% | ▼ 20% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 60% | 54% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 10% | 25% | ▲ 70% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 70% | 68% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 79% | • 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): AGMK 0 - 1 - 1 Neftchi. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AGMK vs Neftchi?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished AGMK 0:0 Neftchi. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between AGMK and Neftchi?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches AGMK won 0, Neftchi won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before AGMK vs Neftchi?
AGMK score 1.40 goals per game on average and Neftchi 2.50. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.63 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 70% of AGMK's matches and 20% of Neftchi's.
What form are AGMK and Neftchi in?
Over the last 5 games AGMK have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Neftchi 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AGMK vs Neftchi?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for AGMK vs Neftchi: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.