AGMK vs Termez Surkhon: match statistics
AGMK vs Termez Surkhon: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AGMK played Termez Surkhon in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The match was played on 8 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
AGMK: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Termez Surkhon: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
AGMK scores 0.80 and concedes 1.40 goals per match. Termez Surkhon scores 1.00 and concedes 1.40. League average: 2.43 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AGMK 40%, Termez Surkhon 40%. Over 2.5: AGMK 40%, Termez Surkhon 60%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
AGMK has higher xG: 1.33 vs 1.22. AGMK: 11.6 shots per match, Termez Surkhon: 11.6.
Match halves
AGMK: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.60. Termez Surkhon: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.40.
Goals by minute
AGMK: 46-60 (2 goals). Termez Surkhon: 0-15 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uzbekistan Super League: 2.43 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 0.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I forecast a draw because the scoring metrics are highly balanced: both teams average 1 goal per match (home team 1.00 at home, away team 1.00 on the road) and both concede 1.5 goals on average, indicating small margins in the final score. AGMK has an advantage in chance creation — on average 15 shots and 5 on target per match with xG 1.69 at home, versus 8.5 shots, 3 on target and xG 1.01 for the visitors away. Termez Surkhon, however, compensates with efficiency and form: shot conversion 12% versus the hosts’ 7%, 2 wins in the last 5 matches and an average of 1.4 points in that period compared to AGMK’s 1 win and 0.8 points. Additionally, the hosts have yet to win at home (0% home wins) and failed to score in 50% of home matches, while the visitors have 0% away matches without a goal and 50% clean sheets away, which offsets the hosts’ xG advantage. Therefore I expect a tight match and assign 34% probability to the home side, 36% to a draw and 30% to a Termez Surkhon win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have a season average of 1.0 goals scored each (AGMK 1.0, Termez 1.0), with goals conceded averages of 1.33 and 1.5, indicating moderate chance exchange but not high finishing efficiency. Season BTTS rates are 33% for the home side and 50% for the away side, and in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in only 40% of games, so the signal for BTTS - Yes is weak to moderate. A strong argument against BTTS comes from the league context — 60% of matches end with a clean sheet for one team, and individual CS rates are 33% (home) and 50% (away), increasing the likelihood that at least one team fails to score. Qualitative data show xG for the home team 1.36 vs away 1.01 and xG against 1.59 and 1.44, along with low shot conversion of 7% for the home team and 12% for the away team, which limits actual goals. Considering season BTTS ~33–50% (avg ~41%), recent 5-game BTTS 40%, and the high league clean sheet rate of 60%, I assign 38% to BTTS and 62% to No BTTS, therefore I recommend selecting "No" (No Goal).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Aggregate xG and goal averages indicate a moderately open match: AGMK’s attacking xG is 1.36 versus 1.01 for Termez (total 2.37), while the league average goals is 2.53. AGMK averages 13.67 shots per match with a 7% conversion and xG 1.36, whereas Termez has 8.5 shots with a 12% conversion and xG 1.01 — the home side creates more chances, but the visitors are more efficient. Looking at defenses, AGMK concedes 1.59 xG against, and Termez 1.44; in the last 5 matches offensive xG was 1.23 (home) and 1.25 (away), which further points to a moderate goal tempo. After adjusting these values the model projects 1.35 goals for the home team and 1.05 for the away team (total 2.40); the Poisson distribution for this total yields approximately a 69% probability for Over 1.5, 43% for Over 2.5 and 22% for Over 3.5. Seasonal metrics confirm the trend: home teams have 67% of matches over 1.5 goals, visitors 50%, and the league has Over 2.5 at 53% — this strengthens Over 1.5 as the strongest signal. Therefore I recommend playing the Over line 1.5 (over), since the projected 2.40 goals and historical 67% of home teams >1.5 provide the greatest edge.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
AGMK led at the break in 33% of matches and have scored 5 first-half goals this season (1.0 on average per first half), whereas Termez Surkhon did not lead at the break (0%) and have only 1 first-half goal (0.0 average). In the second half Termez averages 1.0 goal and scores after the break in 100% of matches, while AGMK have 0.0 second-half goals and only 33% of matches with a post-break goal, which suggests the visitors frequently complete a turnaround after halftime. AGMK generate higher xG (1.36 vs 1.01) and take more shots (13.67 vs 8.5), but have lower efficiency (conversion 7% vs 12%), meaning the hosts create chances they convert less effectively. Additionally, Termez have a 50% win rate this season versus 33% for the hosts, and a 50% win rate in second halves compared to 0% for AGMK, so the strongest signal is AGMK leading at half-time and Termez winning the match (HT/FT 1/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AGMK | Termez Surkhon | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 22% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Termez Surkhon is 75% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - AGMK · 1.4 pts / match - Termez Surkhon
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Termez Surkhon is 25% better for: goals scored per match.
0.8 goals / match - AGMK · 1 goals / match - Termez Surkhon
AGMK scores in 60% of matches (3 of 5 matches), while Termez Surkhon keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 matches).
Termez Surkhon scores in 60% of matches (3 of 5 matches), while AGMK keeps a clean sheet in 20% (1 of 5 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AGMK
Over / Under - Termez Surkhon
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AGMK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Termez Surkhon - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AGMK
Termez Surkhon
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| AGMK | Liga | Termez Surkhon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.20 | 2.43 | • 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 45% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 48% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 30% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 60% | 66% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | • 80% | 80% | ▼ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): AGMK 0 - 1 - 1 Termez Surkhon. Average goals 0.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AGMK vs Termez Surkhon?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished AGMK 1:1 Termez Surkhon. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between AGMK and Termez Surkhon?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches AGMK won 0, Termez Surkhon won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 0.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before AGMK vs Termez Surkhon?
AGMK score 0.80 goals per game on average and Termez Surkhon 1.00. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.43 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 40% of AGMK's matches and 40% of Termez Surkhon's.
What form are AGMK and Termez Surkhon in?
Over the last 5 games AGMK have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Termez Surkhon 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AGMK vs Termez Surkhon?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for AGMK vs Termez Surkhon: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.