Agropecuario vs Club Atlético Güemes: match statistics

Agropecuario have a clear advantage based on their opponents’ form: Club Atlético Güemes have lost all of their last 5 matches, scoring just 3 goals and conceding as many as 13. The hosts are not in top form either, but they have collected 5 points from their last five games, while the visitors have failed to earn a single point. At home, Agropecuario concede an average of just 0.82 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 45% of their appearances, whereas Güemes allow opponents an average of 2.10 goals away from home and have not recorded a single clean sheet. The hosts also create better chances, as reflected by their average xG of 1.43 compared with 1.14 for the visitors, while their opponents are allowed an xG of 1.68. Agropecuario’s low attacking efficiency, with the team failing to score in 45% of home matches, increases the likelihood of a draw, but Güemes’ poor defence and disastrous run strongly favour a home win.

A scenario in which at least one team fails to score is more likely, as the league’s average BTTS rate is only 40%, while Agropecuario records this outcome in 45% of matches. Güemes does have a season BTTS rate of 80% and has kept no clean sheets, but it has scored just 3 goals in its last five matches, averaging 0.6 per game. Agropecuario is not particularly effective either, averaging 0.91 goals for the season and only 0.8 across its last five appearances, which limits the likelihood of a goal exchange. The hosts should benefit from the opponents’ weak defence, with the visitors conceding an average of 2.6 goals in their last five matches, but Güemes’ limited attacking potential suggests that the visitors may fail to respond with a goal. The teams’ xG figures from their last five matches are similar and moderate—1.14 for Agropecuario and 1.08 for Güemes—so a result with only one team scoring appears more likely than an open game producing BTTS - Yes.

Agropecuario average 0.91 goals, while Güemes concede 2.10 goals per match, raising the hosts’ projection to around 1.35 goals. The visitors have scored just 3 goals in their last five matches, or 0.60 per game, with an xG of 1.08 over that period compared with Agropecuario’s 1.31 xG conceded. Despite Güemes’ defensive weaknesses, both teams have a limited offensive ceiling: neither has scored more than 2 goals in a match at any point this season. The 3.5-goal line has not been exceeded in 82% of Agropecuario’s matches and 80% of Güemes’ games, with the league average standing at just 1.92 goals. Therefore, the clearest edge lies with Under 3.5 goals, even if the hosts should be able to exploit their opponents’ defensive problems.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Agropecuario win, as the hosts were level at the break in 55% of their matches, while Güemes were trailing at that stage in as many as 60%. The first halves are expected to be cautious: Agropecuario score an average of just 0.36 goals before the break, and both teams have seen at least one goal scored before half-time in only 18% and 10% of their matches, respectively. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as Güemes concede an average of 1.40 goals while Agropecuario score 0.55 goals in second halves. The visitors are in very poor form, having lost their last five matches, conceded 2.6 goals per game during that run, and failed to collect a single point. In addition, Agropecuario have a higher season points tally, averaging 1.27 points per match compared with their opponents’ 0.50, while Güemes have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches.