Águila vs Firpo: match statistics

I predict an away win (2): Firpo has 30 wins this season versus Águila’s 22 and a superior goal difference 92:49 compared to 61:53. Offensively Firpo averages 2.35 goals on the road with a conversion rate of 23%, while Águila at home records 1.54 goals and 15% conversion, despite similar shot volumes (10.04 vs 10.22) and shots on target (4.7 vs 4.52). Quality of chances is comparable — both teams average xG of 1.54 — but Firpo converts those opportunities more efficiently; additionally Firpo’s matches feature a higher average total goals (3.65 in their away games vs 2.79 in Águila’s home matches). In the last 5 games Firpo scored 6 goals and averages 1.6 points per game, Águila only 3 goals and 1.4 points per game, and the share of goalless matches is 9% for Firpo versus 13% for Águila, which confirms the visitors’ edge in efficiency. Considering Firpo’s 65% away win rate versus Águila’s 46% home win rate and the superior conversion (23% vs 15%), I price the probabilities at 55% for Firpo, 25% for a draw and 20% for the home side.

Firpo as the away side averages 2.35 goals per match and has BTTS in 74% of games, which strongly supports Goal/Goal. Águila at home scores 1.58 on average and concedes 0.79, while keeping a clean sheet in 50% of matches and having a season BTTS of 38%, which argues against the BTTS scenario. In xG terms Águila generates 1.97 xG versus 1.19 xG conceded by Firpo, and Firpo has 1.54 xG versus 1.14 xG conceded by Águila, so both teams create chances (xG 1.97 vs 1.54). However, form over the last 5 matches shows Águila with BTTS 0% and scoring 0.6 goals on average, while Firpo has BTTS 40% and scores 1.2 goals, which reduces confidence in the home-side signal. Overall I favor BTTS - Yes and assign it a 62% probability versus 38% for No Goal.

I project 1.58 goals for Águila and 1.34 for Firpo, totaling 2.92 (calculated as the average of team attacking xG and opponent xG: (1.97+1.19)/2 and (1.54+1.14)/2). A Poisson model with lambda=2.92 yields roughly a 79% probability for Over 1.5 goals, about 56% for Over 2.5 and around 33% for Over 3.5. Firpo scores on average 2.35 goals per game and has a season rate of matches over 1.5 at 91% and Over2.5=74%, while Águila at home has Over1.5=67% and Over2.5=38%, which strengthens the over signal. Águila has kept 50% clean sheets, but in the last 5 matches they scored 3 goals (0.6 avg), and Firpo scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) with 74% of matches featuring both teams to score, so the most reliable and strongest play from the data is the over at the 1.5 line.

Firpo clearly dominates the first half: average goals at the break 0.91 versus 0.42 for Águila, and Firpo led at the break in 48% of matches compared to 21% for the home side. Over 90 minutes the visitors score on average 2.35 goals with a 23% shot conversion rate, while Águila has 1.58 goals and only a 12% conversion; despite Águila’s higher xG (1.97 vs 1.54), Firpo converts chances more efficiently. This is confirmed by goals at the break: Firpo has 37 such goals this season versus 19 for Águila, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 6 goals by half-time versus 2 for the hosts. Although Águila kept a clean sheet at half-time in 71% of home matches, it led at the break in only 21% of games, which suggests those clean halves are mostly draws rather than leads. Therefore the strongest scenario is a Firpo lead at the break and a visitors’ win after 90 minutes (HT/FT 2/2) — I assign this a 37% probability, with significant alternatives being X/2 (18%) and X/X (11%).