Airbus UK vs Trefelin: match statistics

Airbus UK have won 3 of their last 5 home matches, while Trefelin have recorded 3 defeats and 2 draws in their last five away games. The hosts average 2.4 goals and 6.2 shots on target per match at home, whereas the visitors score just 0.6 goals from 2.8 shots on target away. Airbus UK’s advantage is further supported by the quality of chances created: their home xG stands at 1.62, compared with Trefelin’s away xG of 0.87. The visitors’ defensive record also favours the hosts, as they concede an average of 2.4 goals away from home, while Airbus UK allow 1.4 goals at home. Although the hosts have lost 3 of their last 5 matches overall, Trefelin have failed to win any of their last five and have conceded 10 goals, making an Airbus UK win the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal points to at least one team failing to score: Airbus went scoreless in 67% of matches, while Trefelin did so in 40%. The hosts average 0.33 goals per match and the visitors 0.60, with average xG of 0.97 and 0.87 respectively, indicating limited attacking threat from both sides. The likelihood of both teams scoring is increased by weak defenses, which concede an average of 2.5 and 2.4 goals, as well as by neither team having kept a clean sheet. In their last five matches, Airbus improved their scoring average to 1.4 goals, while Trefelin remained at 0.6, so I rate the scenario in which only one team scores slightly higher than BTTS - Yes. BTTS - No means at least one team fails to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals: the Over 1.5 line has been cleared in 83% of Airbus UK matches and 100% of Trefelin matches. Both teams have conceded in every match, averaging 2.5 and 2.4 goals conceded per game, respectively. The case for higher goal lines is less compelling due to their attacking output: the home side averages 0.33 goals and the visitors 0.6, although Airbus UK has lifted its average to 1.4 over its last five matches. Accordingly, the projected total of 2.7 goals supports Over 1.5, while the Over 2.5 line remains considerably less certain: it has been cleared in 50% of the home side’s matches and 40% of the visitors’ matches.

The strongest signal for Airbus UK to lead at the break comes from the last five matches: the hosts were ahead at half-time three times, while Trefelin were trailing three times. Over this period, Airbus averaged 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded, compared with Trefelin’s 0.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. The recent five-match record also supports Airbus holding on to their lead: they won twice and averaged 1.4 goals, while Trefelin recorded no wins and averaged 0.6 goals. However, the 1/1 pick carries significant uncertainty, as Airbus have not won any of their six home matches in the season data and were trailing at half-time in five of them. Therefore, the scenario in which the hosts lead from half-time to full-time is the single most likely outcome, but is assigned only a 23% probability.