Airdrieonians vs Dunfermline Athletic: match statistics

Dunfermline Athletic are the favourites: away they average 1.5 goals per game and have a shot conversion rate of 16%, whereas Airdrieonians score just 0.67 goals at home and convert shots at around 7%. In the last 5 matches Dunfermline have scored 11 goals, won 3 and average 2.0 points per game, while Airdrie have scored 5 goals, won 1 and average 0.8 points per game. Defensively both teams are similar (Airdrie concede 1.27 goals at home vs 1.25 conceded by Dunfermline away), but the hosts have worse clean sheet numbers (27% vs 38%) and in as many as 53% of Airdrie’s home matches they failed to score, compared to Dunfermline failing to score in 31% of away games. Mean xG shows comparable creation potential (1.15 xG for the hosts vs 1.24 xG for the visitors), but significantly higher conversion and slightly more on-target shots per game (3.63 on target for Dunfermline vs 3.27 for Airdrie) favour the visitors. Additionally the goal difference in Airdrie’s home matches is -9, while Dunfermline are +4 away, which confirms the visitors’ edge. Based on this I tip an away win: 60% chance for Dunfermline, 25% for a draw and 15% for Airdrie.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 38%, below the league average of 48%, providing a baseline signal against BTTS - Yes for this match. Airdrie have kept a clean sheet in 44% of matches and failed to score in 25% of games, while Dunfermline failed to score in 31% of their matches, so there is a real chance at least one side will not score. In the last 5 matches Airdrie show only 20% BTTS and average 1.0 goals scored versus 1.6 conceded, whereas Dunfermline have 40% BTTS and average 2.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, suggesting Dunfermline will create more goals but not necessarily both teams. xG paints a mixed picture: season xG_for 1.46 (Airdrie) vs 1.24 (Dunfermline), but in the last 5 xG_for 1.12 vs 1.42 and xG_against 1.57 vs 1.10 indicate Dunfermline are more likely to score while Airdrie’s recent attacking output is weak. Considering both teams’ BTTS rate is below the league (38%), the high share of clean sheets (44%/38%) and Airdrie’s weaker form in the last 5, I assess No Goal at 65% and BTTS - Yes at 35%.

The xG-based model assigns 1.41 xG to Airdrieonians ((1.46+1.36)/2) and 1.25 xG to Dunfermline ((1.24+1.26)/2), totaling 2.66 expected goals. Seasonally both teams have Over 1.5 in 75% of matches and Over 2.5 in 50% of games, and matches involving them finished above 0.5 goals in 94% of cases, which generally favors outcomes with at least 2 goals. In the last 5 matches Airdrie scored 5 goals (1.0 avg) and Dunfermline 11 goals (2.2 avg) — roughly 3.2 goals combined in their recent form; additionally recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for the home side and 80% for the away side, boosting the chance of Over 2.5 relative to the seasonal 50%. However, the high clean sheet rates (44% home, 38% away) and a low seasonal Over 3.5 rate of 31% weaken the signal for the 3.5 line. As a result the strongest and most reliable signal is a play on Over 1.5 (clear seasonal 75%, xG=2.66 and recent form), with moderate support for Over 2.5.

The most likely scenario is Dunfermline leading at half-time and the visitors winning the match (2/2). In their last five matches Dunfermline have won 3 of 5 (60%, form 'WDWWL'), while Airdrie have only one win in five (20%, 'LDLWL'), giving a clear form advantage to the away side. The visitors have scored 9 goals in minutes 31–45 and in their last five matches they have had at least one goal by half-time in 100% of games; Dunfermline’s average goals by half-time is 0.75 versus Airdrie’s 0.63, so the probability favors the visitors taking the lead before the break. Season xG slightly favors Airdrie (1.46 vs 1.24) and the hosts register more shots on target (4.63 vs 3.63), but Dunfermline are more efficient in conversion (16% vs 13%) and in their last five second halves they average 2.6 points compared to the hosts’ 1.0, which increases the chance of holding and extending a lead. On this basis I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 scenario.