Ajax II vs Roda JC: match statistics

Roda JC sit 6th, while Ajax II are only 15th, and the visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning 3 and drawing 2. Ajax II have scored 7 goals during this period but conceded 8, while their home defence allows an average of 3.33 goals per match and has kept no clean sheets. The hosts create more chances at home, as reflected by 14 shots and an xG of 1.64 per match compared with Roda’s 10.33 shots and xG of 1.18; however, their xG against stands at a high 1.97. Roda JC concede an average of just 0.67 goals per away match, with an xG against of 1.34, which should limit the hosts’ attacking threat. The visitors’ superior current form and significantly more solid defence point to a narrow victory, although Ajax II’s open style increases the risk of a draw.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the high league average of 74%, while both teams followed this scenario in 60% of their last five matches. Ajax II score an average of 1.67 goals at home and register 6.33 shots on target per match, whereas Roda JC have averaged 1.4 goals across their last five appearances. The hosts are vulnerable to conceding, having allowed an average of 1.6 goals in their last five matches, with an xG against of 1.89. However, Roda JC have a solid defense, conceding an average of 0.67 goals away from home and keeping a clean sheet in 33% of matches, which clearly reduces confidence in this pick. Despite this, Ajax II have failed to keep a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, while Roda JC's xG from their last five games stands at 1.44, so it is slightly more likely that both sides will score.

Ajax II average 1.67 goals at home, while Roda JC concede just 0.67 goals per away match and have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their games. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.55 xG, while Roda’s defense allows opponents 1.34 xG, limiting expectations of a very high Ajax goal tally. Roda score just 0.67 goals away from home, with a conversion rate of 6%, although the teams have each averaged 1.4 goals per match across their last five games. Over the entire season, Roda have yet to play an away match featuring at least four goals, while Ajax II have recorded under 3.5 goals in 67% of their matches. Despite the high league average of 3.81 goals, the projected total of 2.40 goals makes Under 3.5 the strongest option.

A draw at half-time followed by a Roda JC win is the most likely outcome, as Ajax II were level after 45 minutes in 2 of the 3 matches analysed, while both teams recorded a 40% half-time draw rate in their last five games. Roda have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, winning 3 and drawing 2, whereas Ajax II suffered 2 defeats during that period. The visitors have recently conceded just 0.8 goals per match, compared with the hosts’ average of 1.6 goals conceded, increasing their chances of turning around an evenly balanced game after the break. Ajax II do create more chances, averaging 6.33 shots on target compared with Roda’s 4.00, but the visitors’ current efficiency and more stable defence point towards an away win at full-time. In the second halves, Roda have lost none of their last five matches, while Ajax II conceded an average of 1.2 goals during that period, further supporting the X/2 scenario.