Ajax vs PSV: match statistics
Ajax vs PSV: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ajax played PSV in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 2 May 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Ajax: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. PSV: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ajax scores 1.90 and concedes 1.19 goals per match. PSV scores 2.90 and concedes 1.32. League average: 3.18 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ajax 68%, PSV 74%. Over 2.5: Ajax 58%, PSV 84%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 62%.
xG, shots and style
PSV has higher xG: 2.08 vs 1.70. Ajax: 14.5 shots per match, PSV: 17.8.
Match halves
Ajax: half-time lead 52%, second-half goals 0.77. PSV: half-time lead 55%, second-half goals 1.45.
Goals by minute
Ajax: 31-45+ (15 goals). PSV: 76-90+ (19 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.18 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 62%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
PSV are the favorites in this matchup: they have scored 90 goals across the season versus Ajax’s 59, and in away fixtures average 2.47 goals per game compared to Ajax’s 1.93 at home. The visitors create and convert more opportunities — averaging 7.2 shots on target and 15% conversion with 1.94 xG away, while Ajax record 6.73 shots on target, 12% conversion and 1.90 xG at home. The home defense is nevertheless solid: Ajax concede only 0.87 goals per game at home and keep clean sheets in 40% of matches, versus PSV conceding 1.07 away and having 33% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches PSV scored 15 goals and averaged 1.8 points per game, Ajax 9 goals and 1.6 points, which reinforces the visitors’ offensive edge. Based on these figures I predict a PSV win; suggested probabilities: home 20%, draw 25%, away 55%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Strong signal for BTTS - Yes: Ajax has a seasonal home BTTS rate of 81%, PSV 67% away, league average 62%. Ajax averages 3.31 goals scored at home with xG 2.21, PSV averages 2.47 goals away with xG 1.94, while Ajax concedes 1.56 at home and PSV concedes 1.07 away — both teams therefore create and allow goals. In the last 5 matches Ajax scored 9 and conceded 5 (avg. 1.8 and 1.0), PSV 15 and conceded 10 (avg. 3.0 and 2.0), which further confirms a propensity for Goal/Goal outcomes. Additionally over 2.5 is 94% for Ajax and 73% for PSV, and the share of matches with over 2.5 and BTTS is 81% vs 67%, so the both teams to score scenario is the strongest and I recommend BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Numerical analysis shows significant goal potential: Ajax averages 3.31 goals at home, PSV scores 2.47 away, xG is 2.21 for Ajax and 1.94 for PSV, while xG against is 1.17 (Ajax) and 1.36 (PSV), yielding expected goals of ~1.79 for Ajax and ~1.56 for PSV (total 3.35). Seasonal percentages confirm confidence in Over 1.5 — Ajax has 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals, PSV 93%, therefore I assign Over 1.5 approximately a 98% probability. Over 2.5 is also highly likely: Ajax 94% and PSV 73% give on average about 84% support, and in the last 5 matches PSV had 80% Over 2.5 while Ajax had 60%. Over 3.5 is less certain (Ajax 69% vs PSV 40% -> roughly 55–56%), and the fact that the expected total of 3.35 is slightly below 3.5 weakens that line, so the best, strongest signal is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I’m backing 2/2 (PSV leading at the break and ultimately winning) because the strongest signal is the visitors’ advantage: PSV led at half-time in 60% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 60.0) and have an 87% win rate in season statistics (winPercentage_away = 87.0). PSV averages 2.6 points per game (seasonPPG_away = 2.6) and accumulated 30 points at HT (HTPoints_away = 30), whereas Ajax at home has 28 HT points and 2.38 points per game (HTPoints_home = 28, seasonPPG_home = 2.38), which supports the visitors’ effectiveness. Ajax shows stronger offensive metrics at home (xG 2.21 and on average 19.44 shots per game: xg_for_avg_home = 2.21, shotsAVG_home = 19.44) and has 39 goals before the break (GoalsHT_home = 39), but concedes more goals at home (on average 1.56; seasonConcededAVG_home = 1.56) than PSV away (on average 1.07; seasonConcededAVG_away = 1.07), making it harder for them to hold a lead. In 81% of Ajax’s matches both teams scored versus 67% for PSV (seasonBTTSPercentage_home = 81.0, seasonBTTSPercentage_away = 67.0), so I expect goals, but PSV’s superior point and start statistics (on average 2.0 HT points versus 1.75 for Ajax) make 2/2 the strongest scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ajax | PSV | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ajax is 11% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Ajax · 1.8 pts / match - PSV
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
PSV is 53% better for: goals scored per match.
1.9 goals / match - Ajax · 2.9 goals / match - PSV
Ajax is 11% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.19 goals / match - Ajax · 1.32 goals / match - PSV
Ajax scores in 94% of matches (29 of 31 matches), while PSV keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 31 matches).
PSV scores in 97% of matches (30 of 31 matches), while Ajax keeps a clean sheet in 29% (9 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ajax
Over / Under - PSV
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ajax - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 52% of matches and wins 45%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
PSV - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 55% of matches and wins 81%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +13 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ajax
PSV
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| Ajax | Liga | PSV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.10 | 3.18 | ▲ 4.23 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 68% | 62% | ▲ 74% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 58% | 62% | ▲ 84% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 20% | ▲ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 90% | 81% | ▲ 97% |
| Goal after half-time | • 84% | 84% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ajax 0 - 1 - 0 PSV. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ajax vs PSV?
The Eredivisie match finished Ajax 2:2 PSV. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ajax vs PSV?
Ajax score 1.90 goals per game on average and PSV 2.90. The Eredivisie average is 3.18 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 68% of Ajax's matches and 74% of PSV's.
What form are Ajax and PSV in?
Over the last 5 games Ajax have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and PSV 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ajax vs PSV?
The statistical background for Ajax vs PSV — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.