Ajax vs Twente: match statistics
Ajax vs Twente: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ajax played Twente in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Ajax: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Twente: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ajax scores 1.89 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Twente scores 1.68 and concedes 1.07. League average: 3.20 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ajax 71%, Twente 61%. Over 2.5: Ajax 57%, Twente 43%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 62%.
xG, shots and style
Twente has higher xG: 1.99 vs 1.73. Ajax: 14.8 shots per match, Twente: 17.9.
Match halves
Ajax: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.82. Twente: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 1.11.
Goals by minute
Ajax: 31-45+ (13 goals). Twente: 46-60 (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.20 goals per match, BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 62%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win. Ajax wins 64% of home matches, while Twente records 36% wins away, giving a clear home advantage. Ajax averages 2.0 goals per home game and concedes 0.79, with average xG 1.96 and 7.07 shots on target per match; Twente away scores 1.79 goals per game, concedes 1.14 and has xG 1.89 with 6.21 shots on target. Additionally Ajax keeps a clean sheet in 43% of home matches versus only 7% for Twente on the road, which offsets the visitors’ better form (Twente 4 wins in last 5, 10 goals and an average 2.4 points per match; Ajax 1 win, 8 goals and 1.2 points). As a result I see an edge for Ajax, but expect an open game with goals from both sides.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assess BTTS probability at 65% (Yes) vs 35% (No), because the data favors both teams scoring. Twente shows a strong away BTTS signal: seasonal away BTTS rate 79% and only 7% clean sheets away with an average 1.79 goals scored on the road, indicating Twente regularly scores. Ajax at home has a lower BTTS rate of 43% and keeps a clean sheet in 43% of matches, but their home xG is 2.09 versus Twente’s away xG of 1.4, so the hosts should create chances. In the last 5 matches Twente averages 2.0 goals scored, while Ajax concedes 1.2 goals on average in their last 5, which materially increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Additionally, the league average BTTS is 64% and the xG comparison (2.09 vs 1.89) plus similar shots on target (6.43 vs 6.21) confirm that the strongest signal is 'BTTS - Yes' (Goal/Goal).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and defensive metrics point to a goals game: Ajax has xG 2.09, while Twente’s xG against is 1.40, which together increases the chance of opportunities; therefore I project Ajax to score about 1.81 goals. Twente with xG 1.89 and facing a defensively weaker Ajax (xG against 0.96) is expected to score ~1.52 goals, giving a combined expected total of 3.33 goals. Seasonal stats further support the over: Ajax has had 79% of matches over 1.5, Twente 86%, and both teams record high percentages of BTTS matches (43% and 79%) with Twente keeping only 7% clean sheets. Although season-long Over 2.5 is only 43% for both sides, the last 5 matches show Over 2.5 in 60% of cases and the league averages 3.2 goals per game, so the 2.5 line is also a strong candidate. The strongest, most reliable signal is however the over 1.5 (79%/86% seasonally and a 3.33 goal projection), therefore I recommend betting on Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At Half-Time I expect a draw: both teams have an identical first-half goals average (Ajax 0.57 vs Twente 0.57) and Ajax were level at the break in 75% of their last 5 matches (last5_drawingAtHT_overall_home 75.0). The match is more likely to be decided after the break – second-half goals averages are 1.64 for Ajax and 2.00 for Twente (AVG_2hg_home 1.64, AVG_2hg_away 2.0), and 93% of the away team’s matches have a goal after the break (over05_2hg_percentage_away 93.0). Twente are in very good form: 80% wins in their last 5 matches (last5_winPercentage_overall_away 80.0) and 80% won second halves in those matches (last5_wins_2hg_percentage_overall_away 80.0), indicating a strong ability to produce a turnaround after half-time. Although Ajax have higher xG (2.09 vs 1.89) and a better home clean sheet percentage (43% vs 7%), Twente’s high BTTS rate (79%) and second-half statistics favour the visitors. Consequently I assign the highest probability to the X/2 scenario (draw at Half-Time, Twente win) at 36%, with relatively lower chances for 1/1 (15%) and X/X (11%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ajax | Twente | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Twente is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Ajax · 2.4 pts / match - Twente
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ajax is 13% better for: goals scored per match.
1.89 goals / match - Ajax · 1.68 goals / match - Twente
Twente is 17% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - Ajax · 1.07 goals / match - Twente
Ajax scores in 93% of matches (26 of 28 matches), while Twente keeps a clean sheet in 25% (7 of 28 matches).
Twente scores in 79% of matches (22 of 28 matches), while Ajax keeps a clean sheet in 25% (7 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ajax
Over / Under - Twente
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ajax is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.82 pts / match - Ajax · 1.46 pts / match - Twente
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ajax - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 43%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Twente - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (13 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (14 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ajax
Twente
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| Ajax | Liga | Twente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.14 | 3.20 | ▼ 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 64% | ▼ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 57% | 62% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 25% | 19% | ▲ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 82% | ▼ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | • 86% | 85% | • 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ajax 1 - 0 - 0 Twente. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ajax vs Twente?
The Eredivisie match finished Ajax 1:2 Twente. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ajax vs Twente?
Ajax score 1.89 goals per game on average and Twente 1.68. The Eredivisie average is 3.20 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Ajax's matches and 61% of Twente's.
What form are Ajax and Twente in?
Over the last 5 games Ajax have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Twente 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ajax vs Twente?
The statistical background for Ajax vs Twente — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.