Ajax vs Utrecht: match statistics
Ajax vs Utrecht: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ajax played Utrecht in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 10 May 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Ajax: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Utrecht: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ajax scores 1.91 and concedes 1.22 goals per match. Utrecht scores 1.59 and concedes 1.28. League average: 3.17 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ajax 69%, Utrecht 59%. Over 2.5: Ajax 59%, Utrecht 50%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
Ajax has higher xG: 1.69 vs 1.63. Ajax: 14.4 shots per match, Utrecht: 15.1.
Match halves
Ajax: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.78. Utrecht: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.91.
Goals by minute
Ajax: 31-45+ (15 goals). Utrecht: 31-45+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.17 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ajax is the favorite for this match: at home they average 1.94 goals with an average xG of 1.87 and 6.56 shots on target per game, while Utrecht away average 1.38 goals with xG 1.48 and 5.13 shots on target. Defensively Ajax concedes only 0.94 goals at home and has 38% clean sheets, whereas Utrecht away concedes 1.75 goals on average and has only 19% clean sheets. Ajax rarely fail to score (6% of home matches) and have a home goal difference of +16, while Utrecht have an away goal difference of -6 and more frequently end matches goalless for themselves. In the last 5 matches Ajax scored 10 and conceded 6 (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 1.6 points per game), and Utrecht scored 11 and conceded 10 (3 wins, 2 losses, 1.8 points per game), which shows a better points run for the visitors but also greater susceptibility to conceding. Considering Ajax’s advantage in attacking efficiency, possession (56% vs 47%) and lower average xG against (1.35 vs 1.62), the higher probability favors the hosts.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Based on the data I assess BTTS probability at 63% (Yes) vs 37% (No). Seasonal indicators show Ajax at home scores 1.81 and concedes 0.81 with 31% clean sheets, while Utrecht away scores 1.38 and concedes 1.75, and their seasonal BTTS is 69%, a strong signal that the visitors frequently feature in Goal/Goal matches. In the last 5 matches Ajax has BTTS at 60% with averages of 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Utrecht in the last 5 has BTTS 40% but averages 2.2 scored and 2.0 conceded, indicating a higher attacking efficiency from the visitors and some defensive susceptibility for both teams. xG and shot statistics confirm Ajax creates more (xG 1.79 at home, 17.0 shots and 5.88 shots on target) versus Utrecht (xG 1.48, 13.19 shots and 5.13 on target), so Ajax has the potential to score and Utrecht has recently been finding the net as well. Considering Utrecht’s high seasonal BTTS of 69%, the league BTTS level of 63% and the recent average conceded goals of 1.2 for Ajax and 2.0 for Utrecht in the last 5 matches, the 'both teams to score' scenario appears stronger.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Ajax at home averages 1.81 goals scored and concedes 0.81, Utrecht away averages 1.38 scored and concedes 1.75, which immediately indicates a propensity for goals from both sides. Average xG are 1.79 for Ajax and 1.48 for Utrecht, while xG against are 1.62 (Utrecht against) and 1.33 (Ajax against), which when averaged give projected 1.71 goals for Ajax and 1.41 for Utrecht (total 3.12). Seasonal shares of matches over 1.5 are 75% for Ajax and 88% for Utrecht, and the league average is 3.17 goals per match, so Over 1.5 is the strongest signal (I estimate 88% for Over 1.5). Over 2.5 also has solid foundations: seasonal values 44% (Ajax) and 56% (Utrecht) and in the last 5 matches Ajax has Over 2.5 in 80% and Utrecht in 60%, hence an estimate of 64% for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 remains less likely with seasonal 31–38% for both teams and projected total xG 3.12, therefore I assign about 36% to Over 3.5, and the recommended play is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Ajax led at the break in 56% of matches (9 instances) and has an average of 0.81 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.25, which strongly supports the home side holding the lead after 45 minutes. Utrecht score on average 1.38 goals per match but concede 1.75 and were leading at the break in only 31% of games, so the risk of Utrecht taking a lead at HT is limited. Additionally, Ajax generates higher xG (1.79 vs 1.48), more shots (17.0 vs 13.19) and more shots on target (5.88 vs 5.13), which supports maintaining the lead and winning the match (Ajax has a 56% win rate this season versus 25% for Utrecht). Considering also that Ajax keep a clean sheet at half-time in 75% of matches, the scenario of leading at the break and winning the match (1/1) I rated as the strongest and assigned it a 45% probability.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ajax | Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Utrecht is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Ajax · 1.8 pts / match - Utrecht
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ajax is 20% better for: goals scored per match.
1.91 goals / match - Ajax · 1.59 goals / match - Utrecht
Ajax is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.22 goals / match - Ajax · 1.28 goals / match - Utrecht
Ajax scores in 94% of matches (30 of 32 matches), while Utrecht keeps a clean sheet in 25% (8 of 32 matches).
Utrecht scores in 81% of matches (26 of 32 matches), while Ajax keeps a clean sheet in 28% (9 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ajax
Over / Under - Utrecht
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ajax is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.84 pts / match - Ajax · 1.56 pts / match - Utrecht
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ajax - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 44%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Utrecht - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 41%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ajax
Utrecht
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| Ajax | Liga | Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.13 | 3.17 | ▼ 2.88 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 63% | ▼ 59% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 59% | 61% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 28% | 20% | ▲ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 91% | 81% | • 81% |
| Goal after half-time | • 84% | 84% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ajax 0 - 0 - 1 Utrecht. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ajax vs Utrecht?
The Eredivisie match finished Ajax 1:2 Utrecht. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ajax vs Utrecht?
Ajax score 1.91 goals per game on average and Utrecht 1.59. The Eredivisie average is 3.17 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 69% of Ajax's matches and 59% of Utrecht's.
What form are Ajax and Utrecht in?
Over the last 5 games Ajax have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Utrecht 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ajax vs Utrecht?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.