Ajax vs Willem II: match statistics

Ajax are in clearly better current form: they have collected 10 points from their last 5 matches and scored 16 goals, while Willem II have earned just 4 points and scored only 6 goals. The hosts create significantly more chances at home, averaging 21 shots and 5 shots on target per match, with an average xG of 2.06 compared with the visitors’ 1.02 away from home. Willem II have lost every away match so far, conceding an average of 4 goals, with an xG against of 2.47 and not a single clean sheet. Ajax also have defensive issues, conceding an average of 2.5 goals at home and failing to keep a clean sheet, but the visitors’ weak defence should allow them to capitalise on their possession advantage, which stands at 54% versus 31%. An Ajax win in a high-chance match is the most likely outcome, although Willem II scoring remains a realistic scenario.

The signal for both teams to score is strong: the season BTTS rate stands at 67% for Ajax and as high as 100% for Willem II, while both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches. Neither side has kept a clean sheet yet, with Ajax conceding an average of 3.0 goals and Willem II 4.0 goals per match. Ajax’s recent attacking form is very strong, averaging 3.2 goals with an xG of 2.26, while Willem II scores 1.2 goals per game and should be able to exploit the hosts’ defense, which has allowed 2.0 goals per match across its last five appearances. Willem II generates an average xG of 1.19, while Ajax allows opponents an xG of 1.40, supporting a realistic chance of the visitors scoring despite their weaker finishing. Additionally, the league has a BTTS rate of 77% and averages 4.02 goals per match, making a scenario in which both sides score at least once more likely.

The match profile clearly favors goals: in their last 5 matches, Ajax averaged 3.2 goals, while Willem II conceded as many as 2.8. During this period, Ajax created chances worth 2.26 xG per match, whereas the visitors’ defense allowed opponents 2.15 xG. Both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 100% of their last five matches, while matches involving both sides saw both teams score in 80% of those games. In addition, neither team has kept a clean sheet so far, while the league-wide average stands at a very high 4.02 goals per match. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as even with a more conservative conversion rate, the attacking data and defensive weaknesses indicate a very low risk of the match ending with no more than one goal.

The strongest scenario is Ajax leading at the break and winning the match, as the hosts have won 60% of their last five matches, compared with just 20% for Willem II. Ajax held the lead at half-time in 3 of their last 5 appearances and averaged 1.4 goals in the first half, while the visitors scored only 0.6 goals during that period. The hosts’ advantage should persist after the interval: Ajax average 1.8 goals in the second half, while Willem II concede as many as 1.8 goals in that period. The chance-quality indicators also favour Ajax, whose average xG stands at 1.31 versus 1.02 for the visitors, while Willem II’s weaker defence allows an average of 2.47 xG. Risk remains elevated due to Ajax’s defence, which concedes an average of 3.0 goals per match this season, so scenarios involving a visitor turnaround retain a noticeable degree of probability.