Ajka vs Nagykanizsai TE: match statistics

Ajka sit higher in the table, in 8th place compared with Nagykanizsai TE in 12th, and remain unbeaten after their three league matches so far: one win and two draws. At home, the hosts average 2 goals per match and have yet to fail to score, while the visitors average 1 goal away from home and have been held scoreless in 50% of their away fixtures. Nagykanizsai TE do create more chances, as reflected by 1.47 xG and 5.5 shots on target away from home compared with Ajka’s 0.94 xG, but they convert just 10% of their attempts, whereas the hosts’ conversion rate stands at 29%. Both defences concede an average of 1 goal in the respective setting, but Ajka allow opponents a high xG against them of 2.30, so this should be a closely contested match. Home advantage and considerably more clinical finishing nevertheless give Ajka a slight edge.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive: Ajka recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, while Nagykanizsai TE did so in 40%, against a league average of 55%. The hosts conceded an average of 1.6 goals during this period, while their xG against was a high 2.41, which supports the prospect of an away goal. Nagykanizsai TE averages 5.5 shots on target per match compared with Ajka’s 2.5, and their average attacking xG of 1.47 is higher than the opponent’s 1.11. Both teams kept a clean sheet in 0% of matches, but each failed to score in 50% of games, so BTTS - Yes is only a slight, rather than a strong, favourite.

The model expects 2.75 goals, as Ajka create chances worth an average of 1.11 xG, while Nagykanizsai TE allow an average of 1.65 xG. The visitors generate 1.47 xG per match and register 5.5 shots on target, whereas Ajka have allowed as much as 2.41 xG in their last five fixtures. Despite the indications of a goal-rich game, neither team averages more than 1.0 goal over the entire season, and both sides have gone over 3.5 goals in just 50% and 0% of their matches to date, respectively. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ajka’s last five matches, but in only 40% of the visitors’ games, pointing more towards a total of 2–3 goals than an open, high-scoring game. The strongest selection is therefore under 3.5 goals, supported by a 70% probability and a relatively high safety margin against the projected 2.75 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Nagykanizsai TE victory after the final whistle, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with just 20% for Ajka. Nagykanizsai TE create more quality chances, with an average xG of 1.47 versus Ajka’s 1.11, and register an average of 5.5 shots on target per match compared with the hosts’ 2.5. Ajka have lost both of their home matches so far, conceding an average of 2.0 goals, while the visitors have averaged 1.5 points per away match and won 50% of such games. In their last five league matches, Ajka have conceded an average of 1.2 goals after half-time, and their matches featured at least two second-half goals in 80% of cases, increasing the visitors’ chances of settling an evenly matched opening period.