Aktobe vs Tobol: match statistics
Tobol presents definitely better form in the last five matches, earning 2.2 points per match with a record of 3 victories and 2 draws without a defeat, while Aktobe obtained merely 0.8 points per match with only 1 win and 3 losses. The visitors' advantage is also visible in offensive efficiency – Tobol scored 9 goals in the last 5 meetings while conceding 5, whereas Aktobe scored 7 goals while conceding as many as 10. The goal difference (+4 for Tobol vs -3 for Aktobe) and the visitors' unbeaten run testify to their clear form advantage. Taking into account all available statistics, Tobol has the highest chances of victory, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to the visitors' last two unresolved results. Aktobe, in poor form, has the lowest probability of achieving success in this clash.
Aktobe vs Tobol: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Aktobe play Tobol in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match date is 7 March 2026 at 13:00. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
Aktobe: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Tobol: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Aktobe scores 1.47 and concedes 1.11 goals per match. Tobol scores 1.11 and concedes 1.37. League average: 2.35 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Aktobe 47%, Tobol 58%. Over 2.5: Aktobe 42%, Tobol 47%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Tobol has higher xG: 1.58 vs 1.47. Aktobe: 13.1 shots per match, Tobol: 13.5.
Match halves
Aktobe: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.89. Tobol: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.53.
Goals by minute
Aktobe: 16-30 (6 goals). Tobol: 0-15 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.35 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 0-1-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Tobol presents definitely better form in the last five matches, earning 2.2 points per match with a record of 3 victories and 2 draws without a defeat, while Aktobe obtained merely 0.8 points per match with only 1 win and 3 losses. The visitors' advantage is also visible in offensive efficiency – Tobol scored 9 goals in the last 5 meetings while conceding 5, whereas Aktobe scored 7 goals while conceding as many as 10. The goal difference (+4 for Tobol vs -3 for Aktobe) and the visitors' unbeaten run testify to their clear form advantage. Taking into account all available statistics, Tobol has the highest chances of victory, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to the visitors' last two unresolved results. Aktobe, in poor form, has the lowest probability of achieving success in this clash.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Aktobe | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tobol is 11% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Aktobe · 2 pts / match - Tobol
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Aktobe is 32% better for: goals scored per match.
1.47 goals / match - Aktobe · 1.11 goals / match - Tobol
Aktobe is 23% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.11 goals / match - Aktobe · 1.37 goals / match - Tobol
Aktobe scores in 74% of matches (14 of 19 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 16% (3 of 19 matches).
Tobol scores in 74% of matches (14 of 19 matches), while Aktobe keeps a clean sheet in 32% (6 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Aktobe
Over / Under — Tobol
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Aktobe is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.58 pts / match - Aktobe · 1.37 pts / match - Tobol
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Aktobe - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Aktobe
Tobol
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Aktobe | Liga | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.58 | 2.35 | ▲ 2.47 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 54% | ▲ 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 44% | ▲ 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 28% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | • 63% | 64% | • 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 74% | 70% | ▲ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Aktobe 0 - 1 - 1 Tobol. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Aktobe vs Tobol?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Aktobe 4:1 Tobol. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Aktobe and Tobol?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Aktobe won 0, Tobol won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Aktobe vs Tobol?
Aktobe score 1.47 goals per game on average and Tobol 1.11. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.35 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Aktobe's matches and 58% of Tobol's.
What form are Aktobe and Tobol in?
Over the last 5 games Aktobe have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Tobol 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Aktobe vs Tobol?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.