Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: match statistics
Al Nassr is showcasing superior form and metrics this season, currently topping the table with a record of 10 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses. The visitors boast an 80% win rate in away fixtures, averaging 2.8 goals scored while conceding just 0.6 per game. While Al Ahli is solid at home (50% win rate), they possess notably weaker offensive (1.67 goals avg) and defensive metrics (1 goal conceded avg). Al Nassr's advantage in possession (59% vs 52%), shots on target (7.2 vs 4.67), and xG (2.41 vs 1.56) underscores their dominance. The visitors' form over the last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), combined with a 60% clean sheet rate on the road, points to a high probability of victory for Al Nassr in this matchup.
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Al Ahli played Al Nassr in Professional League (Saudi Arabia). The match was played on 2 January 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Al Ahli: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Al Nassr: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Al Ahli scores 1.36 and concedes 0.73 goals per match. Al Nassr scores 3.18 and concedes 0.64. League average: 3.04 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Al Ahli 45%, Al Nassr 55%. Over 2.5: Al Ahli 27%, Al Nassr 73%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Al Nassr has higher xG: 2.41 vs 1.64. Al Ahli: 13.4 shots per match, Al Nassr: 21.1.
Match halves
Al Ahli: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.82. Al Nassr: half-time lead 64%, second-half goals 2.00.
Goals by minute
Al Ahli: 76-90+ (5 goals). Al Nassr: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Professional League: 3.04 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Al Nassr is showcasing superior form and metrics this season, currently topping the table with a record of 10 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses. The visitors boast an 80% win rate in away fixtures, averaging 2.8 goals scored while conceding just 0.6 per game. While Al Ahli is solid at home (50% win rate), they possess notably weaker offensive (1.67 goals avg) and defensive metrics (1 goal conceded avg). Al Nassr's advantage in possession (59% vs 52%), shots on target (7.2 vs 4.67), and xG (2.41 vs 1.56) underscores their dominance. The visitors' form over the last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), combined with a 60% clean sheet rate on the road, points to a high probability of victory for Al Nassr in this matchup.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Al Ahli | Al Nassr | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Al Nassr is 30% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Al Ahli · 2.6 pts / match - Al Nassr
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Al Nassr is 134% better for: goals scored per match.
1.36 goals / match - Al Ahli · 3.18 goals / match - Al Nassr
Al Nassr is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.73 goals / match - Al Ahli · 0.64 goals / match - Al Nassr
Al Ahli scores in 91% of matches (10 of 11 matches), while Al Nassr keeps a clean sheet in 45% (5 of 11 matches).
Al Nassr scores in 100% of matches (11 of 11 matches), while Al Ahli keeps a clean sheet in 55% (6 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Al Ahli
Over / Under - Al Nassr
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Al Nassr is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.82 pts / match - Al Ahli · 2.18 pts / match - Al Nassr
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Al Ahli - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 55%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Al Nassr - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 64% of matches and wins 91%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Al Ahli
Al Nassr
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Professional League).
Teams vs league
| Al Ahli | Liga | Al Nassr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.09 | 3.04 | ▲ 3.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 63% | ▼ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 27% | 56% | ▲ 73% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 55% | 21% | ▲ 45% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 73% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 78% | ▲ 91% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
The Professional League match finished Al Ahli 3:2 Al Nassr. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
Al Ahli score 1.36 goals per game on average and Al Nassr 3.18. The Professional League average is 3.04 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Al Ahli's matches and 55% of Al Nassr's.
What form are Al Ahli and Al Nassr in?
Over the last 5 games Al Ahli have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Al Nassr 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.