Al Ahli vs Al Riyadh: match statistics

Al Ahli are clear favourites, having won 4 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.4 points per game over that span, compared with Al Riyadh’s average of 1.4 points. At home, the hosts have won 100% of their matches, scoring an average of 4 goals and conceding none, while the visitors are still without an away win and concede as many as 3.5 goals per game. Al Ahli’s superiority is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.81 compared with Al Riyadh’s 1.09, while their opponents allow 2.74 xG worth of chances. The hosts also register significantly more shots—16 per match compared with the visitors’ 9.5—and are more accurate, averaging 7 shots on target compared with 4. Al Riyadh are capable of scoring, but 11 goals conceded in their last 5 matches suggest that their defence could struggle badly against an in-form Al Ahli.

Al Riyadh have yet to keep a clean sheet this season and concede an average of 3.5 goals per match, with a very high xG against of 2.74, which significantly increases Al Ahli’s chances of scoring. The hosts have averaged 1.8 goals and produced 1.73 xG across their last five matches, despite their season-long scoring average standing at just 0.5. Meanwhile, Al Riyadh average 2.5 goals per game this season and 1.6 across their last five matches, while Al Ahli allow opponents 2.0 goals per match on average over the season. A note of caution is the BTTS rate of just 40% for both teams in their last five matches, but the visitors’ defensive weakness and the hosts’ attacking improvement slightly favour a goal from both sides — BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal.

Al Ahli have scored an average of 1.8 goals and created chances worth 1.73 xG in their last five matches, while Al Riyadh have conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game over the same period. The visitors’ defense is particularly conducive to goals, with their average xG conceded standing at 1.94 in their last five appearances and as high as 2.74 across the season. Al Riyadh are capable of responding offensively, averaging 1.6 goals scored in their last five matches, although Al Ahli’s more solid defense conceded just 0.8 goals during that run. The 2.5 line was covered by both teams in 60% of their last five matches, while the league-wide average is a high 2.89 goals. However, the strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as Al Ahli’s attacking advantage combined with the visitors’ very weak defense offers significantly greater security than higher lines.

A draw at half-time followed by an Al Ahli win is the most likely outcome, as Al Riyadh were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 of 5 for Al Ahli. However, the hosts are clearly stronger in terms of current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding just 0.8, while Al Riyadh have conceded an average of 2.2 goals. The first halves should be relatively even, as Al Ahli have scored 0.6 goals before the break in their last five matches, compared with 0.8 for Al Riyadh, although the visitors have also allowed their opponents to score 1.0 goal on average. After the break, the hosts' advantage increases: they score an average of 1.2 goals in the second half, compared with 0.8 for Al Riyadh, and their second-half goal difference stands at +3. The X/1 scenario is further supported by the fact that Al Ahli have averaged 2.0 points per match in second halves, compared with 1.4 for the visitors.