Al Ansar vs Al Ahed: match statistics
Al Ansar vs Al Ahed: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Al Ansar played Al Ahed in Lebanese Premier League (Lebanon). The match was played on 12 July 2026. Venue: Sour Stadium. Final score: 3:3.
Current form
Al Ansar: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Al Ahed: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Al Ansar scores 2.50 and concedes 0.58 goals per match. Al Ahed scores 1.61 and concedes 1.09. League average: 2.46 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Al Ansar 42%, Al Ahed 39%. Over 2.5: Al Ansar 58%, Al Ahed 52%. League level: BTTS 34%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
Al Ansar has higher xG: 1.63 vs 1.38. Al Ansar: 10.9 shots per match, Al Ahed: 9.7.
Match halves
Al Ansar: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.33. Al Ahed: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.87.
Goals by minute
Al Ansar: 76-90+ (20 goals). Al Ahed: 0-15 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Lebanese Premier League: 2.46 goals per match, BTTS 34%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-1. Average goals 4.33, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Al Ansar, as the league leader, shows excellent form: this season they have 17 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses with 55 goals scored, and in the last 5 matches they have scored 18 goals (4 wins, 1 draw). In home matches the hosts score on average 2.17 goals, register 12.9 shots per game with 6.3 on target and have xG 1.82, while conceding only 0.67 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 58% of fixtures; the percentage of matches without scoring is 0%. Al Ahed is solid but less efficient offensively and away: season record 13 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses and 34 goals; away they average 1.64 goals, xG 1.32, 8.64 shots and 4.09 on target with 18% of matches without a goal. The defensive differential and quality of chances favor the hosts — Al Ansar conceded 11 goals this season versus Al Ahed’s 22, and despite similar xG against (0.91 vs 0.90) the hosts create and finish more chances (2.17 vs 1.64 goals per game). Considering the advantage in shots, higher xG, zero percentage of matches without a goal for the hosts and a better points average in the last 5 matches (2.6 vs 1.8), I assess the chances as: Al Ansar win 70%, draw 18% and Al Ahed win 12%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rates are only 30% for Al Ansar and 36% for Al Ahed, versus a league BTTS average of 31%, indicating a low likelihood of Goal/Goal. Additionally, Al Ansar have a 50% clean sheet rate this season, Al Ahed 45%, and the league overall has as many as 80% of matches featuring at least one clean sheet, so often one side keeps a clean sheet. In the last 5 matches Al Ansar average 3.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Al Ahed score 2.0 and concede 1.4, which shows hosts frequently win convincingly and do not allow the opponent to score. xG for both teams is moderate and similar (xG_for 1.29 vs 1.32; xG_against 1.06 vs 0.90), and the league goals average is 2.44, so there is no clear signal for high, mutual scoring. Based on this, the safest choice is BTTS - No — I estimate a 70% probability of no BTTS and 30% for BTTS.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Al Ansar has scored 18 goals in the last 5 matches (3.6 avg) and conceded 3 (0.6 avg), while Al Ahed has 10 goals (2.0 avg) and 7 conceded (1.4 avg) in the same period. Seasonal averages are 1.6 goals for the home side and 1.64 for the away side, with offensive xG of 1.29 (Al Ansar) versus 1.32 (Al Ahed), and xG against of 1.06 (Al Ansar) and 0.90 (Al Ahed). Combining season-weighted xG and form from the last 5 matches, I expect approximately 1.31 goals for Al Ansar and 0.99 for Al Ahed, i.e. 2.30 total. At this level (lambda ≈ 2.30) the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 67%, while the chance of 3+ goals (Over 2.5) is ~40% and 4+ (Over 3.5) ~20%. Considering the home form (18 goals in 5 matches and 100% Over 2.5 in the last 5) and seasonal over1.5 rates of 60% and 64% for both teams, the strongest signal is a play on Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back 1/1 (home leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) as the most probable scenario because the home side have won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and were leading at the break in 3 of those 5 games (60%), which signals strong form. Season-long metrics are very even — xG is 1.29 for Ansar versus 1.32 for Al Ahed, and the percentage of leads at the break is 40% for the hosts versus 45% for the visitors, so the visitors hold a slight historical edge. However, in the last 5 matches the hosts score an average of 1.8 goals by Half-Time and concede only 0.2 (versus season averages of 0.7 scored and 0.5 conceded at Half-Time), indicating a clear uptick in the hosts’ first-half efficiency. Over the full match both teams show similar attacking parameters (on-target shots 4.7 for the hosts versus 4.09 for the visitors and comparable xG), but the hosts’ form advantage (4 wins in the last 5 vs. 3 wins for the visitors) suggests the HT lead will be maintained to Full-Time. Therefore I assign the highest weight to 1/1 (28%), with the alternative X/1 (18%) if the lead materialises only after Half-Time, while noting the visitors’ season win rate of 64%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Al Ansar | Al Ahed | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 49% | 46% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Al Ansar is 44% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Al Ansar · 1.8 pts / match - Al Ahed
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Al Ansar is 55% better for: goals scored per match.
2.5 goals / match - Al Ansar · 1.61 goals / match - Al Ahed
Al Ansar is 88% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.58 goals / match - Al Ansar · 1.09 goals / match - Al Ahed
Al Ansar scores in 96% of matches (23 of 24 matches), while Al Ahed keeps a clean sheet in 43% (10 of 23 matches).
Al Ahed scores in 78% of matches (18 of 23 matches), while Al Ansar keeps a clean sheet in 58% (14 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Al Ansar
Over / Under - Al Ahed
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Al Ansar is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.96 pts / match - Al Ansar · 1.7 pts / match - Al Ahed
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Al Ansar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 75%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Al Ahed - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 61%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +8 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (20 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +17 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Al Ansar
Al Ahed
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Lebanese Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Al Ansar | Liga | Al Ahed | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.08 | 2.46 | ▲ 2.70 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 42% | 34% | ▲ 39% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 58% | 45% | ▲ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 58% | 39% | ▲ 43% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 58% | ▲ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 77% | ▲ 87% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Al AhedAssistMohamad Haidar
- Al AnsarGoalAli Tnesh
- Al AnsarGoalHicham Houssem Eddine Khalfallah
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Al Ansar 2 - 0 - 1 Al Ahed. Average goals 4.33, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Al Ansar vs Al Ahed?
The Lebanese Premier League match finished Al Ansar 3:3 Al Ahed. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ansar and Al Ahed?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Al Ansar won 2, Al Ahed won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Al Ansar vs Al Ahed?
Al Ansar score 2.50 goals per game on average and Al Ahed 1.61. The Lebanese Premier League average is 2.46 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Al Ansar's matches and 39% of Al Ahed's.
What form are Al Ansar and Al Ahed in?
Over the last 5 games Al Ansar have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Al Ahed 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Al Ansar vs Al Ahed?
The statistical background for Al Ansar vs Al Ahed — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.