Al Draih vs Abha: match statistics

Al Draih sit 10th, while Abha are bottom in 18th place. In their last five matches, the hosts have averaged 1.4 points compared with the visitors’ 0.4. Abha have lost both of their away games so far, conceding as many as 3.5 goals per match, with an average xG against of 1.79. The hosts have also been unconvincing at home, failing to win any of their three matches and scoring just 0.33 goals per game, although their xG of 1.29 suggests greater attacking potential than their actual finishing output indicates. Al Draih’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.32, clearly lower than Abha’s, while the visitors have scored only 3 goals and conceded 9 in their last five league matches. Home advantage and Abha’s extremely poor away defence point towards an Al Draih breakthrough, although the hosts’ low scoring efficiency increases the risk of a draw.

The BTTS - Yes pick does not have a clear edge, as both teams have recorded this outcome in only 40% of their last 5 matches, compared with the league average of 45%. Abha have scored just 0.6 goals per match during this period and failed to score in 50% of their matches this season, which represents a significant risk on their side. Al Draih have shown better recent attacking form, averaging 1.2 goals across their last five appearances, while Abha conceded 1.8 goals per match over the same period, making a home goal likely. However, the visitors create chances worth an average of 1.49 xG, while the hosts allow opponents 1.30 xG, so their chances of scoring remain realistic. Although neither team has kept a clean sheet so far, Abha’s poor goal production and the low BTTS rate in their recent form provide slightly stronger support for the BTTS - No outcome, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

Al Draih create chances worth an average of 1.33 xG, while Abha allow opponents 1.79 xG, clearly increasing the hosts’ goal-scoring potential. Abha have conceded an average of as many as 3.50 goals in their matches so far, and neither team has kept a clean sheet yet. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Draih’s matches and in all of Abha’s games, while the league averages 2.65 goals per match. The teams’ last five appearances produced an average of 2.6 and 2.4 total goals, respectively, although only 40% of those matches went over 2.5 goals. Therefore, Over 1.5 is the strongest selection: the 2.55-goal forecast supports at least two goals, but does not provide an equally strong edge for Over 2.5.

A draw at half-time followed by an Al Draih win is the most likely outcome, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their last five matches, while Abha were level in 60% of such games. Al Draih averaged 0.6 goals before the break in their last five outings, compared with just 0.2 for Abha, and the visitors have not led at half-time once during the entire available season. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should increase: Abha concede an average of 3.5 goals per match this season and as many as 2.0 goals in second halves, while failing to keep a clean sheet in any game. Al Draih’s potential is further supported by their higher xG, 1.33 compared with their opponents’ 1.17, as well as their stronger recent form: the hosts averaged 1.4 points per match across their last five games, while Abha managed just 0.4. The X/1 scenario is therefore stronger than the hosts leading at the break, although 1/1 remains a significant alternative.