Al Draih vs Neom SC: match statistics

Neom SC have a slight edge: they sit 6th compared with Al Draih in 8th and have scored 16 goals this season, against the hosts’ 9. In their last five matches, the visitors have scored 7 goals and earned 7 points, while Al Draih have managed 2 goals and 5 points. Away from home, Neom average 1 goal scored and 0.6 conceded, while the hosts score just 0.5 goals per home game and have failed to score in 50% of their matches. Although Al Draih’s home xG is 1.34 compared with Neom’s 1.02 away from home, the hosts convert just 4% of their shots, limiting the significance of their edge in chance quality. Al Draih’s poor finishing and the fact that 50% of their home matches have ended in draws make a share of the points a realistic possibility, but the more clinical visitors are slight favourites.

BTTS occurred in 33% of Al Draih’s matches and just 20% of Neom SC’s, so the data for both teams points towards at least one side failing to score. In their last 5 matches, the hosts averaged just 0.4 goals, despite a season average of 1.83, weakening the prospect of them finding the net. Neom SC kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches, while Al Draih failed to score in 33% of theirs. The visitors can also struggle in front of goal: they failed to score in 40% of their matches and have an average xG of 1.02, making BTTS - No the more likely outcome. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily imply a 0-0 draw.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been breached in any of Neom SC’s 5 matches or in 83% of Al Draih’s games. Neom SC concede just 0.6 goals on average and have yet to record a match with over 2.5 goals, reducing the likelihood of a four-goal game. Al Draih average 1.83 goals per game this season, but their average has fallen to 0.4 goals across their last 5 appearances, so the hosts’ attacking potential should be assessed cautiously. The projected total of 2.20 goals supports Under 3.5, although the teams’ average xG figures of 1.72 and 1.02 mean that two or three goals cannot be ruled out.

Although Al Draih have won 67% of matches in the sample so far, they have averaged only 0.4 goals across their last five games, compared with 1.4 for Neom SC. A draw at half-time is supported by the fact that the visitors went in level in 3 of their 5 matches, while the hosts failed to score in the first half in 4 of their last five. After the break, Neom SC’s current form points to an advantage: they have averaged 1.0 second-half goals over their last five matches and won that half in 60% of games, compared with 0.2 goals and no second-half wins for Al Draih. The hosts do have a higher average xG across the full sample, 1.72 to 1.02, so an Al Draih win remains possible; however, recent results point more strongly to a draw at the break and an eventual victory for the visitors in the HT/FT market.