Al Faisaly vs Al Fateh: match statistics

Al Faisaly hold a slight edge, primarily due to their defensive quality: at home, they allow opponents just 0.72 xG, while Al Fateh concede as much as 2.20 xG away from home. The hosts have scored 9 goals in their last five matches and won 2 of them, whereas the visitors have managed just 2 goals during the same period and suffered 3 defeats. Al Faisaly tend to dominate possession more frequently on home soil, averaging 58% compared with Al Fateh’s 41% away from home. Neither team has yet scored in their respective home and away fixtures, so the risk of a draw remains high; however, the visitors’ weaker defence, conceding an average of 3 goals away from home, favours the hosts.

The strongest signal is Al Fateh’s poor finishing: the team has failed to score in the available season data, while averaging just 0.4 goals over their last 5 matches. The visitors recorded BTTS in 0% of their last five games, whereas Al Faisaly saw this outcome in 40% of matches, clearly supporting a scenario in which at least one side fails to score. However, Al Faisaly are more dangerous in attack, having averaged 1.8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Al Fateh conceded 1.8 goals per game during this period. Although the visitors’ latest xG stands at 1.17, their actual return was just 2 goals in five appearances, meaning their lack of finishing is the biggest risk to the BTTS market. The league-wide BTTS rate of 43% also provides no strong support for both teams to score, so BTTS No is the more likely outcome.

Al Faisaly have averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last five matches, while Al Fateh have also conceded 1.8 goals per game during this period, which clearly supports the hosts’ attacking output. However, the visitors have scored just 0.4 goals per game across their last five appearances and have not recorded a single Both Teams to Score result in that span. The average xG figures are 1.22 for Al Faisaly and 1.17 for Al Fateh, but the hosts allow opponents just 1.02 xG, whereas the visitors’ defence permits 1.62 xG. Both teams have had 60% of their matches finish with at least three goals in their last five, but the projected total of 2.65 and Al Fateh’s low attacking efficiency reduce the likelihood of four goals. The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as even with the hosts’ advantage, a result featuring 1-3 total goals is more likely.

Al Faisaly have shown greater potential in their last five matches, averaging 1.8 goals compared with just 0.4 for Al Fateh. The hosts were leading at the break in 40% of those games, while the visitors went into half-time trailing in as many as 60% of cases. Before the interval, Al Faisaly averaged 0.8 goals, compared with 0.2 for Al Fateh, while the away side conceded as many as 1.2 goals per match during this phase. After the break, the hosts still look stronger, averaging 1.0 goal compared with 0.2 for their opponents. Therefore, the most likely scenario is an Al Faisaly lead at the break followed by a victory at full-time (1/1).