Al Fateh vs Al Draih: match statistics

Al Draih sit 9th, while Al Fateh are only 16th, and the gap is reflected in their recent form: the visitors have averaged 1.4 points per game across their last five matches, compared with just 0.4 for the hosts. Away from home, Al Draih have won both of their matches so far, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding none, while keeping a clean sheet in 100% of their appearances. Al Fateh have won neither of their two home games and failed to score in either, despite averaging 5.5 shots on target per match; their xG stands at 1.21. The visitors create more chances, averaging 13.5 shots and recording an xG of 1.43, while also limiting opponents to an xG of 1.36, compared with 2.08 for Al Fateh. The edge in efficiency, combined with a very solid away defensive record, points to Al Draih having the stronger chances of securing victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Al Fateh’s very poor finishing: the hosts average just 0.33 goals, and only 0.2 goals per game across their last five matches. Al Draih have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far and have not recorded a single game in which they failed to score, while Al Fateh have failed to find the net in 67% of their outings. The season BTTS rate stands at just 33% for the hosts and 0% for the visitors, well below the league average of 48%. The visitors also average 6 shots on target compared with Al Fateh’s 2, increasing the likelihood of them scoring, but this does not offset the risk of the hosts once again drawing a blank. Although Al Fateh’s latest xG stands at 1.45, their actual return of just one goal in five matches suggests that the scenario of the visitors scoring while at least one team fails to score is significantly more likely.

Al Fateh scores an average of just 0.33 goals per match and has netted only 1 goal in its last five games, limiting the hosts’ attacking potential. Al Draih has a significantly stronger offense, averaging 2.00 goals, while also yet to concede in the current campaign and maintaining a 100% clean-sheet record. The xG figures are more balanced, with the hosts creating chances worth 1.29 xG and the visitors 1.43 xG, meaning the expected outcome still points to around 2.30 goals. In both teams, 100% of matches played so far have finished under 3.5 goals, and neither side has recorded a game featuring at least four goals. The strongest edge therefore lies with Under 3.5, which allows room for either a 2:0 away win or a more closely contested 1:1 draw.

Al Draih have a clear edge: they have won 100% of their matches so far, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding none, while Al Fateh average just 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The visitors led at the break in 2 of 2 matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time and keeping a clean sheet in 100% of those first halves; the hosts failed to score before the break. The difference is further confirmed by the quality of chances: Al Draih average 6.0 shots on target compared with Al Fateh’s 2.0, while their finishing efficiency stands at 15%, against just 3% for the hosts. In their last five matches, Al Fateh have not won once and averaged 0.2 goals scored, whereas Al Draih won 40% of their games and averaged 1.2 goals. Therefore, the most likely outcome is an HT/FT scenario in which the visitors take the lead before half-time and maintain it until the final whistle: 2/2.