Al Feiha vs Al Ahli: match statistics

The favorite is Al Ahli: the visitors sit 3rd in the table with a record of 20 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, while Al Feiha are 9th with a 9–6–12 record. In attack Al Ahli have scored 54 goals this season (averaging 1.46 goals away), versus Al Feiha’s 34 goals (1.23 at home); the visitors’ away xG is 1.47 compared to the hosts’ 1.08 xG, indicating an advantage for the visitors in the quality of created chances. Al Ahli’s biggest edge is in defence: the visitors concede only 0.54 goals on average away and have an xG against of 0.88, while Al Feiha concede 1.08 goals at home with an xG against of 1.38 — the hosts are therefore roughly twice as vulnerable to conceded goals. In the last 5 matches Al Ahli scored 10 goals and averaged 2.0 points per game (3W-1D-1L), while Al Feiha scored 8 goals and averaged 1.4 points per game (2W-1D-2L); the visitors also register an average of 4.69 shots on target per away game versus the hosts’ 3 shots on target. Based on this I back Al Ahli to win ('2') — I estimate a 60% probability of a visitors’ win, 25% for a draw and 15% for an Al Feiha win, due to the visitors’ superiority in chance quality and a markedly better defence.

Al Feiha averages 2.5 goals per game at home (xG 1.70) and has a season BTTS rate of 64%, indicating a genuine offensive threat from the hosts. Al Ahli away scores 1.46 goals (xG 1.47), concedes only 0.54 on average and keeps a clean sheet in 77% of away matches, while their season BTTS is just 23%, which significantly reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Averaging opponents' xG yields approximate λ ≈1.29 for Al Feiha ((1.70+0.88)/2) and λ ≈1.27 for Al Ahli ((1.47+1.06)/2); with a Poisson approach this gives roughly a 52% probability that both teams will score at least once. The last 5 matches show mixed signals: Al Feiha has BTTS 40% in the last 5, and Al Ahli 60% in the last 5, so there is no clear short-term edge. Considering the league average BTTS 59%, Al Feiha’s stronger home output and the above xG estimates, I recommend BTTS - Yes with a confidence of 55% vs 45% for No, while exercising caution due to Al Ahli’s 77% clean sheets away.

The model calculates approximately 1.29 expected goals for Al Feiha (average of xG_for_home 1.7 and xG_against_away 0.88) and 1.27 for Al Ahli (average of xG_for_away 1.47 and xG_against_home 1.06), giving a combined xG of about 2.56. Based on this, the probability of over 1.5 goals is estimated at 72% — supported by Al Feiha having 93% of home matches with over 1.5 goals and a league goals average of 3.03. The 2.5 line is balanced: the model gives roughly 47% for Over 2.5 and 53% for Under, because although Al Feiha have 64% of home games over 2.5, Al Ahli away only 31% and maintain a very high 77% clean sheet rate. For 3.5 the chances for Over are low — around 25% — which correlates with seasonal rates (home 43% vs away 15% over 3.5) and the combined xG ≈2.56, leaving little space for four or more goals. The strongest and most profitable signal from the data is therefore the Over line at 1.5, backed by the home statistics and a projected 72% probability.

Statistics suggest a draw at half-time: Al Ahli draws at the break in 9 away matches (69%), while the hosts led at half-time in 7 matches (50%). After the break the advantage lies with the home side — Al Feiha scores on average 2.5 goals per game and has 12 goals in minutes 76–90, with average xG of 1.70 versus Al Ahli’s 1.47. Additionally, the hosts average 2.00 goals after the interval and win the second half in 71% of their matches, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround or takeover of initiative following a half-time draw. The visitors, meanwhile, concede only 0.23 goals before the break on the road and have 77% of matches with a clean sheet this season, so they are resilient in the first half but rarely score late. As a result, the most reliable signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1).