Al Gharafa vs Al Shamal: match statistics

Al Gharafa head into the match in significantly better form: they have collected 11 points from their last five games, winning three times and remaining unbeaten, while Al Shamal have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and picked up just 1 point. The hosts have scored 9 goals during this period, and the quality of the chances they create at home is very high, as reflected by an average xG of 2.46 compared with just 0.89 for the visitors away from home. Al Gharafa average 22 shots at home, including 10 on target, whereas Al Shamal manage only 6 attempts and 4 shots on target. The visitors’ defence remains a major concern, having conceded as many as 15 goals in their last five matches, while away from home they allow opponents an xG of 1.88. Al Shamal are capable of scoring an average of 2 goals away from home, but the hosts’ advantage in possession, 54% to 45%, and chance creation clearly points to an Al Gharafa victory.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is clear: in Al Gharafa’s last five matches, both teams scored in 80% of games, while the figure for Al Shamal was 60%. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.8 goals with an xG of 1.44, whereas Al Shamal scored 1.6 goals while generating as much as 1.83 xG. The strongest argument for an Al Gharafa goal is the visitors’ defence: Al Shamal conceded 15 goals in their last five matches, an average of 3.0 per game. Al Gharafa conceded just 0.8 goals per match, but their xG against stands at 1.29, while the opposition attack generates 1.83 xG, giving the visitors a realistic chance of finding the net. In addition, the league-wide BTTS average is 67%, making a both-teams-to-score scenario more likely than a match in which at least one team fails to score.

Al Gharafa averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Al Shamal conceded as many as 3.0 goals per game during this period, clearly supporting the hosts’ attacking outlook. The visitors also averaged 1.6 goals scored, while Al Gharafa allowed opponents an average of 0.8 goals, which is why the forecast expects goals at both ends. The xG indicators from the last five matches are high: 1.44 for the hosts and 1.83 for the visitors, with a combined projection of 3.35 goals, above the league average of 3.0. Both teams had 60% of their matches finish with at least three goals in their last five appearances, but the Over 2.5 line carries greater variance. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5, as just two goals are required, while the form profile—and particularly Al Shamal’s weak defense—significantly increases the likelihood of reaching that total.

Al Gharafa have been clearly superior over their last five matches, averaging 2.2 points per game, winning 60% of their fixtures and avoiding defeat, while Al Shamal have managed just 0.2 points and suffered defeats in 80% of their matches. The hosts’ advantage is already evident before half-time, as they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in the first half, compared with just 0.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded by the visitors. Al Gharafa held a lead at the break in 40% of their recent matches and have never been behind at half-time, whereas Al Shamal were losing after 45 minutes in as many as 80% of cases. After the interval, the hosts continue to maintain a solid record, conceding only 0.4 goals on average, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents to score an average of 3.0 goals per match. The strongest scenario is therefore an Al Gharafa lead at half-time followed by a win at the final whistle: 1/1.