Al Hazm vs Al Fateh: match statistics

Al Hazm are favourites, sitting 10th and having won 2 of their 8 matches, while 17th-placed Al Fateh are still waiting for their first victory. The hosts have collected 6 points from their last 5 games, compared with just 2 for the visitors; over that period, they conceded 5 and 10 goals respectively. Al Hazm’s home defensive record could prove particularly important: they concede an average of 0.75 goals per match at home, while Al Fateh concede as many as 2 per game away. However, the visitors create more chances on the road than the hosts do at home, posting an xG of 1.39 compared with 0.99, so they cannot be written off. Their finishing remains a concern: they average 0.75 goals away from home and have failed to score in half of those matches. A narrow Al Hazm win therefore looks the most likely outcome, although a draw also has a strong chance.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring is their attacking efficiency: Al Hazm have failed to score in 75% of their home matches, while Al Fateh have done so in 50% of their away games. Their averages in these conditions are just 0.25 and 0.75 goals respectively, consistent with BTTS rates so far of 25% for the hosts and 50% for the visitors. Across their last five appearances, the teams averaged 0.8 and 0.6 goals, even though each generated an xG of 1.22, suggesting their chances have not regularly been converted into goals. The defences offer some scope for a breakthrough—Al Hazm concede an average of 1.75 goals at home, while Al Fateh concede 2.0 away—but given how often they fail to score, it is more likely that at least one side will draw a blank. Accordingly, BTTS - No is the stronger pick; this means at least one team is expected not to score, not necessarily a 0-0 result.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 75% of matches involving the two teams. Al Hazm score just 0.25 goals on average, while Al Fateh average 0.75, although their respective xG averages of 1.12 and 1.39 suggest slightly greater attacking potential than their results indicate. On the other hand, Al Fateh concede an average of 2.0 goals, so despite the hosts' poor finishing, a game with several goals cannot be ruled out. Across their last five matches, Al Hazm averaged 1.8 total goals and Al Fateh 2.6; the 2.5 line was exceeded in 20% and 60% of those matches, respectively. The forecast of 2.37 total goals therefore supports the 3.5 line as a clearer pick than the more finely balanced 2.5 line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Al Hazm were level at the break in 2 of their 4 home matches, while Al Fateh were level in 3 of their 4 away games; neither team had a lead at the break in those samples. The low scoring after half-time also supports the draw holding, with both teams failing to score in the second half in 4 of their last 5 matches. Al Hazm have drawn 3 of their last 5 games, compared with 2 for Al Fateh, so a share of the points is better supported by the results than a win for either side. The hosts do have the edge in recent form, averaging 1.2 points per game compared with the visitors’ 0.4, but across the full period analysed they scored just 0.25 goals per home match. I therefore rate X/X above X/1, although Al Fateh’s recent defensive struggles, conceding an average of 2 goals per game, leave the hosts with a chance to win.