Al Hazm vs Al Shabab: match statistics

Al Hazm have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals during that period, while Al Shabab have failed to win and have scored just 6 goals. However, the hosts’ home advantage is undermined by their home record: they lost their only match so far, failed to score, and recorded an average xG of just 0.94. Al Shabab remain unbeaten away from home after a 0:0 draw, kept a clean sheet, and created chances worth an average of 1.81 xG, with 15 shots and 5 shots on target per match. The visitors therefore have a clear edge in the quality of chances created, but their run of 3 defeats and 2 draws, along with 10 goals conceded in their last five matches, limits their chances of winning. A closely contested draw appears the most likely outcome, although both teams should have opportunities to end their poor finishing streaks.

The signal for both sides to score is primarily based on their recent form: BTTS occurred in 60% of the five previous matches involving Al Hazm and Al Shabab. Al Hazm averaged 1.8 goals scored during this period, while Al Shabab conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game, clearly increasing the hosts’ chances of finding the net. Despite their poorer results, the visitors created chances worth an average xG of 1.77, while the Al Hazm defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.43 and conceded 7 goals in five matches. Both teams also record a high number of shots on target in the season data—5.5 and 5.0 per match, respectively—so their attacking potential is not incidental. Al Shabab’s away statistics, based on a very small sample, suggest that they may fail to score, but the broader data from the last five matches more strongly supports a scenario in which each side scores at least once.

Al Hazm’s last five matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, while Al Shabab’s games averaged as many as 3.2 goals, with both teams recording over 2.5 goals in 60% of those matches. The home side scored 1.8 goals per game during this period, while the visitors conceded 2.0, which supports the expectation of at least one or two Al Hazm goals. Al Shabab create chances worth an average of 1.77 xG, while Al Hazm allow opponents 1.43 xG, meaning the away side also has realistic scoring potential. The projected total of 3.00 goals clearly supports Over 1.5; the line requires only two goals and is significantly safer than the more balanced Over 2.5.

The strongest HT/FT option is a draw at half-time followed by an Al Hazm win, as Al Shabab were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches and never led at half-time. Al Hazm, however, have a clearly stronger current run of form: they collected 9 points from their last 5 matches, won 3 times and averaged 1.8 goals per game, while Al Shabab failed to win any of their matches and conceded an average of 2.0 goals. The hosts held a lead at the break in 40% of their last five appearances, while the visitors were trailing at half-time in 40% of theirs; however, Al Shabab’s high rate of early draws further strengthens the X/1 scenario. After the break, Al Hazm score an average of 0.8 goals, while their opponents score 0.6, with the visitors allowing their opponents an average of 1.0 goal in this period. The hosts’ attacking potential is also supported by an xG of 1.87 compared with Al Shabab’s 1.81, while their superior form and the visitors’ recent defensive weaknesses should determine the outcome after half-time.