Al Hilal vs Al Faisaly: match statistics

Al Faisaly head into the match on an outstanding run of five consecutive victories, while Al Hilal have recorded 4 wins and a draw in their last five fixtures. The visitors have been significantly more clinical, scoring 14 goals in that period—an average of 2.8 per match—compared with Al Hilal’s 8 goals, or 1.6 per game. Their defensive record is equally impressive: Al Faisaly have conceded just 1 goal in five matches, compared with 3 by the hosts. The visitors have averaged 3 points per match during this run, while Al Hilal have averaged 2.6 points, and they also sit 4th in the table, compared with their opponents’ 8th-place position. Home advantage could help Al Hilal make this a closely contested match, but Al Faisaly’s current attacking efficiency and defensive solidity point to a greater likelihood of an away win.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, as Al Faisaly have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while both teams scored in only 20% of those fixtures. Al Hilal recorded a higher BTTS rate of 60%, but their average of 1.6 goals scored faces a very tight opposition defense. The hosts have also defended well, conceding an average of 0.6 goals with opponents’ xG at 0.81, which could limit Al Faisaly’s attacking effectiveness despite their 2.8 goals per match and xG of 1.71. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that at least one team fails to score, particularly with both sides conceding just 4 goals combined across their last 10 matches.

Both teams are in very good form, but their defenses have limited opponents effectively: Al Hilal conceded just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, while Al Faisaly conceded only 1. During this period, Al Hilal averaged 1.6 goals per match with an xG of 1.64, whereas Al Faisaly scored 2.8 goals per game, despite a lower xG of 1.71. At the same time, the teams’ average xG conceded stands at just 0.81 for the home side and 1.02 for the visitors, indicating more difficult conditions for creating multiple clear-cut chances than the visitors’ scoring efficiency alone would suggest. Over 2.5 goals landed in 40% of Al Hilal’s last 5 matches, and with a projected total of 2.59 goals, the clearest edge is on Under 3.5 goals.

Al Faisaly are showing clearly superior recent form, having won all five of their latest matches, while Al Hilal recorded four wins and one draw. During this period, the visitors averaged 2.8 goals scored and conceded just 0.2 per match, compared with the hosts’ averages of 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Al Faisaly led at the break in 80% of those matches, compared with 60% for Al Hilal, and also averaged 1.6 goals after half-time, while the hosts managed only 0.6. The visitors’ defence provides a particularly strong signal, as they did not concede after the break in any of their five matches. Therefore, the most likely scenario is an HT/FT 1/1 outcome, with Al Faisaly taking the lead before half-time and maintaining their advantage through to the final whistle.