Al Ittifaq vs Al Riyadh: match statistics

Al Ittifaq sit 9th, while Al Riyadh are only 15th, indicating a clear difference in quality in the standings. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored 10 goals—an average of 2.0 per game—and conceded just 5; over the same period, the visitors have scored 5 and allowed their opponents to find the net 9 times. Al Ittifaq have lost only one of their last five matches, recording two wins and two draws, whereas Al Riyadh have suffered two defeats during that span. The recent form suggests that the hosts are more effective in attack and significantly more solid defensively, despite both teams having recorded two victories. Home advantage, combined with a +5 goal difference across their last five appearances, points to an Al Ittifaq win.

Al Ittifaq have averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Al Riyadh have conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game, which clearly supports a home goal. The visitors have scored only 1.0 goal per match, but Al Riyadh’s xG stood at a solid 1.63, while Al Ittifaq allowed opponents 1.61 xG. BTTS - Yes occurred in 60% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 40% of the visitors’ games, so the signal is moderately positive but not conclusive. Al Riyadh’s defence conceded 9 goals during this period, compared with 5 conceded by the hosts, making the most likely scenario one in which both teams find the net.

Al Ittifaq have averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Al Riyadh have conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game during this period, clearly supporting the hosts’ scoring prospects. The attacking potential of both sides is confirmed by their xG figures: 1.76 for Al Ittifaq and 1.63 for Al Riyadh, while their opponents allowed 1.61 and 1.63 xG respectively. The hosts’ last five matches produced a total of 15 goals, while the visitors’ games saw 14, averaging 3.0 and 2.8 goals respectively. Over 1.5 therefore has the strongest support from current goal production and the quality of chances created, although the 2.5 line remains more balanced due to Al Riyadh’s lower average of 1.0 goals scored.

The strongest scenario is Al Ittifaq leading at the break and maintaining their winning position, as the hosts were ahead after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 of 5 for Al Riyadh. Al Ittifaq averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded before half-time, while the visitors scored only 0.2 goals and conceded 0.6. The hosts’ advantage is also evident over the full match: across their last five games, they averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, whereas Al Riyadh conceded as many as 1.8 goals per match. After the break, Al Ittifaq recorded a positive 3:0 goal difference across five matches, while their opponents conceded an average of 1.2 goals in this period, increasing the likelihood that the hosts will defend an early lead.