Al Ittihad vs Al Nassr: match statistics

Al Nassr lead the table after four wins in four matches, while in their last five fixtures they have recorded a perfect 5 victories and scored 16 goals. The visitors are particularly dangerous away from home: they average 3.5 goals, register 7 shots on target per match and convert 23% of their attempts, compared with Al Ittihad’s 2 goals, 5 shots on target and 13% conversion rate at home. Al Nassr’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with their average xG standing at 1.77 compared with the hosts’ 1.63. Al Ittihad remain unbeaten and have recorded a run of 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches, but they have drawn 50% of their home fixtures and are yet to keep a clean sheet. The visitors’ defence concedes an average of 1 goal per away match, while the hosts allow opponents 1.5, so Al Nassr should be considered more likely to secure the win.

BTTS - Yes has a slight edge, as Al Ittihad average 2.5 goals at home, while Al Nassr average as many as 3.5 away from home. Neither team has recorded a match without scoring this season, while both have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games, which limits confidence in the pick. Al Nassr’s recent form is very strong: five consecutive wins, 3.2 goals scored per match and 1.80 xG, while Al Ittihad have averaged 1.73 xG over their last five matches. The hosts conceded just 0.6 goals per game during this period, but their xG against stood at 1.59, suggesting that the visitors’ attack should create genuine chances. The historical BTTS rate stands at 50% for both teams, but the high attacking quality and averages of 7.5 and 7.0 shots on target per match provide slight support for a goal from both sides.

Both teams have seen at least 2 goals in every league match, while the average number of goals in their games stands at 3.0 for Al Ittihad and 4.5 for Al Nassr. Al Nassr are particularly strong in attack, averaging 3.5 goals this season and 3.2 across their last five matches, with 7.0 shots on target per game. The hosts create chances worth 2.04 xG per match, compared with 1.77 xG for the visitors, indicating a combined scoring potential well above the league average of 2.89 goals. Both defences are solid, especially Al Ittihad, who concede an average of 0.5 goals, making the Over 3.5 line risky. However, the 1.5 threshold is strongly supported by both the results and the quality of chances created. The best pick is Over 1.5 goals, as even with reduced attacking efficiency, both teams should generate at least two goals.

Al Ittihad tend to start matches strongly: in their last five games, they have been leading at the break in 80% of cases, averaging 1.2 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded before half-time. Al Nassr also possess considerable attacking quality, averaging 3.5 goals per game this season, while their shot-conversion rate stands at 23%, compared with 15% for the hosts. The second half is the decisive factor, however, as Al Nassr have averaged 1.6 goals in their last five appearances, won the second half in 100% of those matches, and conceded no goals. Al Ittihad scored just 0.4 goals after the break during this period, making a scenario in which the hosts lead at half-time before the visitors complete a turnaround the most likely outcome.