Al Jeel vs Jeddah: match statistics

Jeddah sit top of the table and have won both of their league matches so far, while Al Jeel are 17th after two defeats and without scoring a goal. The hosts lost their only home game 0:2, failing to find the net despite an average xG of 1.16 and allowing their opponents an xG of 1.37. Jeddah won their away fixture 3:0, averaging 5 shots on target from just 7 attempts while maintaining 62% possession. The visitors have yet to concede this season, whereas Al Jeel have suffered 4 defeats and conceded 9 goals in their last five matches. The clear difference in finishing, control of the game and defensive solidity strongly favours a Jeddah victory.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as the current data for both teams show a 0% rate of matches with goals scored by both sides, while each team has kept a clean sheet in 100% of its matches. Al Jeel have yet to score at home, whereas Jeddah have scored 4 goals away and conceded none, clearly increasing the likelihood of a scenario in which the hosts fail to score again. In their last 5 matches, BTTS occurred in just 40% of Al Jeel’s games and 20% of Jeddah’s, with an average of only 0.6 and 1.2 goals scored, respectively. The hosts have a low home xG of 0.75 and average only 3 shots on target, while Jeddah allow opponents an xG of 1.08. Even if defensive trends from a small sample can change, the fact that 40% of league matches have featured BTTS, combined with Jeddah’s superiority in limiting opponents, indicates that at least one side is more likely to remain goalless.

In their last 5 matches, Al Jeel scored only 0.6 goals per game, while Jeddah averaged 1.2, which limits the probability of a very high-scoring game. Although the home side conceded 1.8 goals per match, their average attacking xG is just 0.93, compared with 1.11 xG created by Jeddah. The visitors allowed opponents 1.46 xG, so Al Jeel should have chances to score, but there are no strong indications that they will score multiple goals. In Jeddah’s last five matches, 80% finished Over 2.5 goals, yet both teams have recorded 100% of matches under 3.5 goals in the available seasonal sample. The projected total of 2.42 goals points to a match with a realistic chance of 2-3 goals, while Under 3.5 offers the strongest safety margin.

Jeddah are in clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 1.2 goals in those games, whereas Al Jeel have lost 4 of their 5 matches and averaged just 0.6 goals. The hosts were level at half-time in 80% of their last five appearances, with an average of only 0.2 goals scored in the first half. The visitors are more active in attack, averaging 5 shots on target compared with Al Jeel’s 3, while their xG stands at 1.04 versus 0.75 for the hosts. After the break, Al Jeel have conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last five matches, whereas Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in the second half in 60% of those games. The most likely scenario is therefore a level score at half-time, followed by Jeddah capitalising on their superior quality and securing the win.