Al-Jndal vs Jeddah: match statistics

I back an away win for Jeddah (2) because their season offensive metrics are clearly superior: Jeddah averages 1.46 goals on the road versus Al-Jndal’s 0.77 at home. The visitors show high shooting efficiency — a conversion rate of 19% against the hosts’ 8%, with similar shots on target (3.38 vs 3.31) and fewer total shots (7.85 vs 9.08). Additionally, Jeddah have a positive away goal differential (+4), while Al-Jndal are -6 at home and fail to score more often (38% of home matches with 0 goals vs 23% for the away side). In the short term the hosts are slightly better — in the last 5 matches Al-Jndal scored 6 goals and average 1.0 point per match, whereas Jeddah scored only 4 and average 0.8 points per match, which raises the likelihood of a draw. Considering the visitors’ seasonal advantage in efficiency and a higher share of clean sheets (31% vs 23%), coupled with the hosts’ poor conversion, I give Jeddah a higher probability of winning, though a draw remains a realistic outcome.

I project BTTS - Yes as more likely: the league has 61% matches with both teams scoring, while the teams record 54% (Al-Jndal) and 62% (Jeddah) respectively. Jeddah averages 1.46 goals per match (28 this season), whereas Al-Jndal concedes 1.62 goals per match (45 this season), which strongly favors an away goal. Meanwhile Al-Jndal averages 1.2 goals in the last 5 matches (6 in last 5) and has 80% BTTS in that period, and Jeddah concedes 2.6 goals on average in the last 5 (13 in last 5), so there is a realistic chance for the hosts to score. This is supported by xG and shot metrics: Al-Jndal has xG 1.21 and 9.62 shots per match, while Jeddah allows opponents xG 1.52 and records 3.38 shots on target conceded on average, so scoring opportunities should arise from both sides. Based on this I assign 70% to BTTS 'Yes' and 30% to No BTTS.

For the hosts the starting point is xG_for 1.21 and xG against Jeddah 1.52 (average 1.37); after adjusting for Al‑Jndal’s season finishing rate (0.69/1.21 = 0.57) and recent form over the last 5 matches (1.2 goals on xG 1.22 → 0.98) we arrive at an expected ~1.06 goals. For Jeddah xG_for 0.91 and xG against Al‑Jndal 1.27 yield 1.09; accounting for Jeddah’s season finishing rate (1.46/0.91 = 1.60) and weaker recent form (0.8 goals on xG 1.06 → 0.75) I expect ~1.29 goals for the visitors. Total expected ≈2.35 goals translates under a Poisson distribution to probability of ≥2 goals (over 1.5) ≈68%, ≥3 goals (over 2.5) ≈42% and ≥4 goals (over 3.5) ≈21%. This is supported by seasonal indicators: Al‑Jndal have 77% of matches over 1.5 goals, Jeddah 69%, the league averages 2.9 goals per match, and Jeddah have 62% of season matches over 2.5, so the strongest data signal is to back the over at the 1.5 line.

First-half statistics strongly favor Jeddah: Al-Jndal scores an average of 0.15 goals in the first half and concedes 0.85, while Jeddah scores 0.54 and concedes 0.46; the hosts led at the break in 0% of matches, and the visitors in 31%. Over the season Jeddah has a higher average points tally (1.46 vs 0.92 for Al-Jndal) and more wins (38% vs 15%), which increases their chances of a full-time victory. Although Al-Jndal generate higher xG (1.21 vs 0.91), their shot conversion rate is only 7% compared to Jeddah’s 19%, so the visitors are far more efficient with their chances. Given that the hosts draw at the break in 54% and trail at the break in 46% of their matches, the model identifies 2/2 (27%) — the visitors leading at half-time and winning at full-time — as the strongest scenario; alternatively X/2 received 22% as the second-strongest option.