Al Merreikh vs Etincelles: match statistics
Al Merreikh vs Etincelles: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Al Merreikh played Etincelles in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 6 May 2026. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
Al Merreikh: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Etincelles: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Al Merreikh scores 1.21 and concedes 0.54 goals per match. Etincelles scores 0.69 and concedes 1.07. League average: 2.04 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Al Merreikh 36%, Etincelles 52%. Over 2.5: Al Merreikh 29%, Etincelles 28%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 35%.
xG, shots and style
Al Merreikh has higher xG: 1.27 vs 1.20. Al Merreikh: 7.1 shots per match, Etincelles: 7.6.
Match halves
Al Merreikh: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.79. Etincelles: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.28.
Goals by minute
Al Merreikh: 76-90+ (9 goals). Etincelles: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 2.04 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 35%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Al Merreikh has a clear home advantage: they win 54% of home matches, average 1.46 goals scored and concede only 0.69 goals per game, and in the last 5 matches scored 9 and conceded 1. Etincelles are weaker on the road: 16th place, win only 8% of away fixtures, average 0.77 goals scored and concede 1.38 away, and in the last 5 matches they scored 3 and conceded 5. The quality gap is also evident in shots and xG — hosts average 4.27 shots on target and 9.82 total shots at home with xG 1.45, while visitors have 2.54 shots on target and xG 1.15; conversion rate is 12% vs 9%. Additionally, Al Merreikh record 46% clean sheets at home and only 15% of matches without conceding a goal, whereas Etincelles fail to score in 38% of away games and have 15% clean sheets, indicating a home advantage both in defense and finishing. Considering Al Merreikh’s 2.0 points per game over the last 5 matches versus Etincelles’ 1.2, this provides a solid basis to forecast a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rates are 44% for Al Merreikh and 62% for Etincelles, with a league average BTTS of 44%, nominally favoring a both-teams-to-score scenario. However, the strongest signal opposes BTTS — Al Merreikh have 0% BTTS in their last 5 matches and concede just 0.2 goals on average (1 goal in 5 matches), while scoring 9 goals (1.8 per match). Etincelles concede 1.38 goals per game this season and have 62% BTTS, but in their last 5 matches they scored only 3 goals (0.6 per match) and conceded 5 (1.0 per match), which reduces their realistic chance of scoring here. Additionally, the home side have a superior season record of 34 scored/15 conceded versus 20 scored/31 conceded for the visitors, and advantage in xG (1.24 vs 1.15) and in shots on target (3.31 vs 2.54), so a No Goal / clean sheet expected scenario is more likely than BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals based on xG: Al Merreikh 1.26 (xG for 1.24 vs Etincelles’ defensive xG 1.28) and Etincelles 1.12 (xG for 1.15 vs home defensive xG 1.09), totaling 2.38 goals. In the last 5 matches the home side scored 9 goals (1.8 avg) and the visitors 3 goals (0.6), while the league average is 2.04 goals per game; seasonally Over1.5 occurs in 50% of home matches and 77% of away matches. Based on this I assess the probability of over 1.5 goals as high (~82%), since the projected 2.38 goals and Etincelles’ high Over1.5 rate (77%) provide a strong signal to the over. However Over2.5 is less certain: seasonally Over2.5 is 25% for Al Merreikh, 31% for Etincelles and 35% league-wide, and the combined xG of 2.38 is slightly below the 2.5 threshold, therefore I rate under2.5 at about 54%. Over3.5 looks unlikely (0% seasonally for the home side and 15% for the visitors); with average shots on target 3.31 vs 2.54 and conversion rates of 8% vs 9%, the best pick is OVER 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X): the home side were level at the break in 69% of matches, and both teams have high draw percentages this season (home 50%, away 54%). The home side concede only 0.19 goals on average by half-time versus 0.67 for the away side and score 0.44 by half-time, which together with AVGHT_home=0.63 vs AVGHT_away=1.08 indicates a low number of first-half goals and frequent 0-0 scores. xG are similar (1.24 home vs 1.15 away) and the conversion rate is low (8% vs 9%), so overall I expect a low total number of goals across the match. Recent form over the last five matches favors the home side (last 5: 60% home wins vs 20% for the away side), therefore the draw at half-time followed by a home turnaround (X/1) is ranked second at 24%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Al Merreikh | Etincelles | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Al Merreikh is 67% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Al Merreikh · 1.2 pts / match - Etincelles
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Al Merreikh is 75% better for: goals scored per match.
1.21 goals / match - Al Merreikh · 0.69 goals / match - Etincelles
Al Merreikh is 98% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.54 goals / match - Al Merreikh · 1.07 goals / match - Etincelles
Al Merreikh scores in 75% of matches (21 of 28 matches), while Etincelles keeps a clean sheet in 28% (8 of 29 matches).
Etincelles scores in 55% of matches (16 of 29 matches), while Al Merreikh keeps a clean sheet in 54% (15 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Al Merreikh
Over / Under - Etincelles
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Al Merreikh is 24% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.54 pts / match - Al Merreikh · 1.24 pts / match - Etincelles
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Al Merreikh - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Etincelles - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Al Merreikh
Etincelles
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Al Merreikh | Liga | Etincelles | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.75 | 2.04 | ▼ 1.76 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 36% | 43% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 29% | 35% | ▼ 28% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 54% | 35% | ▼ 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 60% | ▼ 52% |
| Goal after half-time | • 68% | 68% | ▼ 59% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Al MerreikhGoalFenohasina Gilles Razafimaro
- Al MerreikhGoalMusab Mohammed Makeen
- Al MerreikhGoalChikumbutso Salima
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Al Merreikh 1 - 0 - 0 Etincelles. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Al Merreikh vs Etincelles?
The National Soccer League match finished Al Merreikh 4:1 Etincelles. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Al Merreikh vs Etincelles?
Al Merreikh score 1.21 goals per game on average and Etincelles 0.69. The National Soccer League average is 2.04 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 36% of Al Merreikh's matches and 52% of Etincelles's.
What form are Al Merreikh and Etincelles in?
Over the last 5 games Al Merreikh have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Etincelles 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Al Merreikh vs Etincelles?
The statistical background for Al Merreikh vs Etincelles — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.