Al Najma vs Al Raed: match statistics

Al Najma have clear arguments in their favor at home: they average 1.5 goals, create chances worth 2.37 xG, and take 16.5 shots per match there. Al Raed score just 0.5 goals away from home with 0.81 xG, and fail to find the net in 50% of such fixtures. The hosts also dominate possession, averaging 59% compared with the opposition’s 41%, while the visitors’ attacking accuracy is limited to just 1.5 shots on target per match. Al Najma are yet to keep a clean sheet, but Al Raed concede an average of 1 goal away from home and allow opponents 1.77 xG. Although the hosts have recorded just 1 win in their last five matches, the superior quality of chances created and home advantage point to an Al Najma victory.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Al Raed, who have averaged just 0.5 goals in the seasonal data and failed to score in 50% of their matches. The visitors also manage only 1.5 shots on target per game, with a 7% finishing rate—clearly weaker than the hosts’ 4.5 shots on target and 23% conversion rate. BTTS occurred in 0% of Al Raed’s matches so far and in only 20% of their last five appearances, compared with the league average of 44%. Al Najma do have a 60% BTTS rate across their last five matches and concede an average of 1.6 goals, but the visitors’ defence has kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches. The hosts’ attacking advantage, also reflected in an xG of 1.69 compared with Al Raed’s 0.98 over their last five matches, increases the likelihood of a one-sided scoring outcome, primarily in Al Najma’s favour.

Al Najma have a clear offensive advantage: they average 1.45 xG and 4.5 shots on target per match, while Al Raed generate only 0.81 xG and 1.5 shots on target. The visitors have scored just 0.5 goals per game this season and failed to score in 50% of their matches, which limits the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. In their last five appearances, the teams conceded 1.6 and 1.4 goals per match respectively, so a 2-3 goal scenario remains realistic, but there is no clear indication that four goals will be scored. In addition, the league average is only 2.03 goals, with Over 2.5 goals landing in just 31% of matches. The strongest selection is Under 3.5, as Al Raed have limited attacking strength and the league data clearly favors lower-scoring outcomes.

Al Najma have a clear attacking advantage at home, averaging 2.5 goals per match compared with Al Raed’s 0.5 away from home. The hosts also create better chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.45 versus 0.81, 4.5 shots on target per match versus 1.5, and a shot conversion rate of 23% compared with the visitors’ 7%. In the first halves, Al Najma average 1.5 goals and have led at the break in 50% of their matches, while Al Raed concede an average of 1.0 goal before half-time. Recent form calls for some caution, as the hosts have won only 20% of their last five matches; however, Al Raed have lost 60% of their games during this period and have failed to score after the break in their away matches so far. The most likely scenario therefore remains one in which Al Najma make the most of their advantage from the outset, take the lead at the break and maintain it until full-time: 1/1.