Al Nejmeh vs Al Ansar: match statistics

Al Nejmeh has a clear defensive edge at home: the hosts concede only 0.25 goals per game on average and keep 75% clean sheets in home matches, while Al Ansar concede 0.36 goals away and record 64% clean sheets. Offensively the advantage lies with the visitors — Al Ansar have scored 62 goals this season versus 49 for Al Nejmeh, and average 2.73 goals per away game compared to 2.33 for the hosts; however, both teams have identical average xG of 1.65, indicating similar quality of created chances. In the last 5 matches the hosts show better points efficiency: 2.2 points per game for Al Nejmeh versus 1.8 for Al Ansar, and Al Nejmeh have conceded only 2 goals in that period compared to 5 for the visitors. The visitors attempt and hit the target more per game (13 shots and 6.09 on target) than the hosts at home (11.56 shots and 5.11 on target), with a similar conversion rate (21% vs 20%), so Ansar’s attack is potent but not necessarily producing better-quality chances than xG suggests. Considering an 83% home win rate for hosts versus 73% away efficiency for the visitors, plus superior home goal protection and recent points form of Al Nejmeh, I give a slight edge to the hosts and predict their victory.

Al Nejmeh averages 2.13 goals scored and concedes 0.80 per match, while Al Ansar score 2.73 and concede only 0.36; their xG are 1.69 (Nejmeh) and 1.65 (Ansar), with xG against 0.94 and 0.80 respectively, indicating both teams create chances but rarely allow opponent goals. Seasonal BTTS rates are 47% for Nejmeh and 36% for Ansar, whereas clean sheet percentages are 53% and 64% — an 11 percentage point advantage to Ansar in keeping clean sheets; in the league BTTS is only 32% with 80% of matches featuring at least one clean sheet. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 40% of Nejmeh’s games and 60% of Ansar’s, and average goals conceded over the last 5 are 0.4 (Nejmeh) and 1.0 (Ansar), showing a slight defensive deterioration for Ansar but still low absolute values. Considering the high share of clean sheets (53% and 64%), very low seasonal goals conceded averages (0.8 and 0.36) and the league’s low BTTS level of 32%, it is more likely that at least one team will keep a clean sheet. Therefore I estimate BTTS - Yes at 35% and No at 65% and recommend a bet on 'No' as the stronger signal from the data.

Al Nejmeh scores on average 2.13 goals per game, while Al Ansar average 2.73, with xG of 1.69 (hosts) and 1.65 (away) respectively. Using the average of offensive xG and the opponent’s defensive xG yields expected goals of 1.25 for Nejmeh ((1.69+0.80)/2) and 1.30 for Ansar ((1.65+0.94)/2), totaling 2.55 goals. Seasonal percentages of matches over 1.5 are 93% for Nejmeh and 64% for Ansar (average 78.5%), hence high confidence in Over 1.5 (I rate 88%). The 2.5 line has seasonal rates of 53% (Nejmeh) and 45% (Ansar), and the combined xG=2.55 provides only a slight edge for Over 2.5 (56%), whereas the 3.5 line shows low percentages of 27% and 36% (average 31.5%), so Under 3.5 is safer (72%).

Both teams display similar attacking strength and nearly identical xG: Al Nejmeh 1.69 versus Al Ansar 1.65, and the average goals scored by each team before the break is 1.27, indicating an evenly contested first half. A draw at half-time is therefore highly probable — Al Nejmeh were level at the break in 53% of home matches, Al Ansar in 45% of away fixtures, yielding roughly a 49% average chance of an HT draw. However, after the break Al Ansar hold the advantage: the visitors win the second half in 82% of cases and score on average 1.55 goals in second halves, while Al Nejmeh concede on average 0.53 goals after the break. Additionally, Al Ansar have a seasonal win rate of 73% versus 67% for the home side and a lower average goals conceded 0.36 vs 0.8, therefore the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of draw at the break and an away win (X/2) is considered the strongest and I assign it a 32% probability.