Al Quadisiya vs Al Faisaly: match statistics

Al Quadisiya sit 5th, while Al Faisaly are only 18th, and in their last five matches the hosts have recorded 3 wins compared with 2 victories for their opponents. However, the hosts create significantly more chances at home, averaging 26 shots and 9 on target, compared with Al Faisaly’s 8 shots and 5 on target away from home. The difference in chance quality is confirmed by Al Quadisiya’s average xG of 3.01, significantly higher than the visitors’ 1.31, while the hosts’ defence restricts opponents to just 0.55 xG. Al Faisaly concede as many as 4 goals per away match on average and have failed to keep a clean sheet, although they can score an average of 2 goals. Both teams have lost their only match so far in the respective home and away conditions, but the hosts’ advantage in chance creation and superior overall form point towards a home win.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, as Al Quadisiya have conceded an average of just 0.6 goals over their last 5 matches, while their opponents have created only 0.80 xG against them. Al Faisaly have averaged 1.8 goals during this period, but lost three of their last five matches, with their average xG standing at only 1.22. However, the hosts are very likely to score: they have netted 10 goals in their last five matches, recording 1.94 xG per game, while Al Faisaly have conceded an average of 1.8 goals. Al Quadisiya's low BTTS rate in their last five matches, at 20%, compared with 40% for the visitors and 46% in the league, suggests that one side is more often left without a goal. A scenario in which the hosts score and Al Faisaly fail to find the net is therefore slightly more likely than both teams scoring.

Al Quadisiya have averaged 2.0 goals and created chances worth 1.94 xG in their last 5 matches, while Al Faisaly conceded 1.8 goals per game over the same period. The visitors averaged 1.8 goals across their five most recent appearances, while the hosts, despite their strong current defensive record of just 0.6 goals conceded per match, allowed 0.80 xG per game. In the teams’ current data, 100% of matches went over the 1.5-goal line, although the results for higher lines are mixed: the hosts recorded 40% Over 2.5 outcomes compared with 60% for the visitors in their last five matches. The projected total of 2.65 goals provides a clear edge for Over 1.5 compared with the more balanced 2.5 line, making it the strongest selection.

Al Quadisiya have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game during this period, while Al Faisaly have lost 60% of their matches and conceded 1.8 goals per outing. The hosts have also shown significantly better defensive organization in this sample, conceding just 0.6 goals on average compared with 1.8 for the visitors. Al Quadisiya held a lead at the break in 40% of their recent matches, while Al Faisaly were trailing at half-time in 40%, with the hosts scoring an average of 1.0 goal and the visitors conceding 1.0 before the break. The scenario of the hosts leading at half-time and maintaining their winning advantage is further supported by the second half: Al Quadisiya scored an average of 1.0 goal and conceded just 0.2, making 1/1 the strongest HT/FT option.