Al Raed vs Al Faisaly: match statistics

Al Faisaly is a narrow favorite to win: they have 16 wins this season versus Al Raed’s 13 and 63 goals scored versus 55, and their away goal difference is +21 compared to the hosts’ +13 at home. In the last 5 matches Al Faisaly have 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 12 and conceding 3 (2.6 pts per match), while Al Raed have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss with 10 scored and 5 conceded (2.0 pts per match). Defensively the visitors perform better — Al Faisaly concede 0.93 goals on average away versus 1.2 conceded by Al Raed at home, and clean sheet rate is 40% vs 20%. The hosts generate more shots and more SOT (13.47 shots and 5.13 SOT at home vs 11.8 and 4.87 for Al Faisaly), but have worse efficiency (conversion 15% versus 20% for the visitors), indicating greater Al Faisaly efficiency from fewer chances. Considering similar xG (1.60 for Al Raed vs 1.65 for Al Faisaly), the visitors’ better form and efficiency and lower average goals conceded, I forecast an Al Faisaly win; suggested probabilities are 30% for Al Raed, 25% for a draw and 45% for Al Faisaly.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 60% (Al Raed 60% and Al Faisaly 60%), and the league BTTS percentage is 61%, providing a solid baseline signal for BTTS - Yes. Additionally, both sides score frequently: Al Raed averages 1.87 goals per match, Al Faisaly 2.33, totaling 4.20 goals per match, and combined xG is 1.47 + 1.65 = 3.12 xG, indicating a high number of goal-scoring opportunities. The counterargument is Al Faisaly’s defense — they concede 0.93 goals per game season-to-date, have 40% clean sheets and in the last 5 matches concede only 0.6 goals on average, which lowers BTTS probability. However, the high share of matches over 2.5 goals (67% for the home team and 73% for the away team) and frequent overlap of Over 2.5 & BTTS (60% for Al Raed and 53% for Al Faisaly) maintain pressure for both teams to score. Considering the seasonal 60–61% baseline, combined xG 3.12, higher away conversion (20% vs 15%) and current forms, I assign 68% to Yes (BTTS) and 32% to No.

xG pairing: Al Raed has xG_for 1.47, Al Faisaly 1.65, while their opponents generate xG_against of 1.25 and 1.23; this yields a baseline expected goals of 1.35 for the home side and 1.45 for the away, totaling 2.80 xG. Seasonally both teams over-perform xG: Al Raed scores 1.87 goals (0.40 above xG), Al Faisaly 2.33 goals (0.68 above xG), with average shots on target 4.8 and 4.87 and conversion rates 15% and 20%. Taking half of that surplus (+0.20 for the home team, +0.34 for the away) and considering form from the last 5 matches (recent xG 1.77 and 1.61), I project 1.55 and 1.79 goals, totaling 3.34. Seasonal over percentages are over1.5 73%/80%, over2.5 67%/73% and over3.5 40%/53%, and both teams scored in 60% of matches (league 61%), which supports a high-scoring scenario. Consequently I estimate probabilities of over1.5 ≈85%, over2.5 ≈65% and over3.5 ≈43%, therefore the strongest data-driven signal is a bet on Over 1.5 goals.

The data clearly favor Al Faisaly: the visitors average 2.33 goals per match versus the hosts’ 1.87 and lead at the break in 8 matches (53%) compared to Al Raed’s 4 (27%). In the first 45 minutes Al Faisaly averages 1.27 goals scored and concedes 0.47, while Al Raed scores 1.00 and concedes 0.80; in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 10 goals by halftime versus 5 for the hosts. The visitors’ xG is 1.65 versus 1.47 for the hosts, and shot conversion is 20% for Al Faisaly against 15% for Al Raed, indicating greater efficiency from the visitors. Both teams have 60% of season matches with both teams scoring, but the visitors’ form is better (last 5: 80% wins for the visitors vs 60% for the hosts), so Al Faisaly’s advantage persists before and after the break. For these reasons the most likely scenario is Al Faisaly leading at half-time and the visitors winning the match (2/2).