Al Ta'ee vs Jeddah: match statistics

Al Ta'ee has a clear advantage in chance creation at home: they have scored 47 goals this season and average 1.5 goals per home match with 12.0 shots and 4.88 on target per game, and an xG of 1.48 per match. Jeddah away have 32 goals this season, averaging 1.38 per match, only 7.81 shots and 3.31 on target with an xG of 0.92 — significantly fewer quality chances. In the last 5 matches Al Ta'ee scored 6 goals and won 2 games (0 draws, 3 losses), averaging 1.2 points per game, while Jeddah scored only 2 goals, have no wins and average 0.4 points per game. Both teams have been vulnerable defensively in the short term — each conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches; Jeddah concedes 1.13 goals on average away versus Al Ta'ee conceding 1.5 at home, but xG against shows greater threat for the visitors (1.53 vs 1.05). Considering the higher shot volume, superior xG for the home side and the visitors’ significantly worse form over the last 5 matches, the higher probability is for an Al Ta'ee victory.

I back BTTS - Yes (68% vs 32%) — primary rationale is the high BTTS rate in the league (62%) and for the away side (Jeddah 63%), plus a strong recent trend for the hosts (Al Ta'ee 80% BTTS in last 5 matches). Al Ta'ee concedes 1.88 goals per game on average and has only an 18% clean sheet rate, while Jeddah scores 1.38 goals away and has a 25% clean sheet rate, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. In terms of chance quality, Al Ta'ee’s attacking xG is 1.16 versus Jeddah’s 0.92, and opponent xG is 1.45 and 1.53 respectively, indicating both teams create and allow high-quality scoring chances. Additionally, Jeddah converts shots to goals at 18% versus just 6% for Al Ta'ee, and 50% of Jeddah’s matches feature both Over 2.5 goals and BTTS, so the 'Yes' scenario carries the strongest signal.

Based on xG: Al Ta'ee’s attacking xG is 1.16 and xG against Jeddah is 1.53 — their average yields an expected 1.35 goals for the home side; similarly Jeddah’s attacking xG 0.92 and xG against Al Ta'ee 1.45 give 1.19 for the away side, total 2.54. Note that Al Ta'ee’s season average goals scored is only 0.59 with a low shot conversion rate of 6.0%, although in the last 5 matches their xG rose to 1.37 and they averaged 1.2 goals. Both teams have high percentages of matches with over 1.5 goals: 82% for the home team and 69% for the away team, which together with the 2.54 total xG provides strong support for Over 1.5 (I assess 85% probability). The 2.5 line is more balanced: season percentages over 2.5 are 41% (Al Ta'ee) and 56% (Jeddah), the league has 60% of matches above 2.5, and Al Ta'ee had 100% of their last 5 matches over 2.5, therefore I give a slight edge to Over (58%). The 3.5 line looks unlikely — season percentages over 3.5 are 29% and 25%, and the 2.54 total xG is substantially below 3.5, so Under has the edge (73%); I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

By half-time the home side virtually never led (leadingAtHT_home = 0.0%), while the away side held the lead in 31.0% of matches, and a draw at half-time is common (draw recorded in 53.0% of home matches and 50.0% of away matches). Over the full match the away side performs better: they win 38.0% of matches versus 12.0% for the home side, scoring on average 1.38 goals per match and conceding 1.13, while the home side averages 0.59 scored and 1.88 conceded. Post-break statistics further favor the away side — they average 0.88 goals in the second half versus 0.47 for the home side, and the home team concedes on average 1.06 goals after the break compared to 0.75 conceded by the away side. Moreover, the home team has a higher xG (1.16 vs 0.92) but a substantially lower shot conversion rate (6.0% versus 18.0%), meaning they create chances but rarely convert them; for these reasons the most likely outcome is a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time (X/2).