Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş: match statistics

Beşiktaş go into the match in excellent form, having won five consecutive games while scoring 6 goals and conceding none. Alanyaspor have scored 7 goals in their last five matches, but have also conceded 7, recording just 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. The visitors are also higher in the table, sitting in 3rd place compared with the hosts’ 6th position, while their average points tally from the last five matches stands at 3, compared with Alanyaspor’s 1. Beşiktaş’s defence provides the strongest argument for an away win, as a run of five clean sheets should limit the hosts’ attacking threat. Alanyaspor may benefit from home advantage and create periods of an even contest, but the visitors’ current consistency and defensive stability clearly point towards outcome 2.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Beşiktaş’s defensive record: they have conceded no goals in their last five matches and won all 5 games. Although Alanyaspor recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five appearances, their average goals scored was only 1.4, with an xG of 1.35. Beşiktaş created a high volume of chances during this period, averaging 2.23 xG, while Alanyaspor conceded an average of 1.4 goals and allowed opponents an xG of 1.39. This suggests that the visitors have a strong chance of scoring, whereas the hosts could be stopped by an exceptionally solid opposing defence. Although the league-wide BTTS average is 56%, Beşiktaş’s run of five clean sheets provides a slightly stronger signal for a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Data from Alanyaspor’s last five matches indicates moderate goal-scoring potential: the team scored and conceded 1.4 goals per game, with at least three goals scored in 60% of those matches. Beşiktaş have won their last five matches in a row, scoring 6 goals and conceding none, which significantly limits the hosts’ chances despite their average of 19 shots and 5 shots on target in the home data. The visitors have recently created chances worth an average of 2.23 xG, while Alanyaspor allowed opponents 1.39 xG; therefore, Beşiktaş’s projected 1.45 goals do not suggest an open game with four goals. The total projection of 2.60 goals, combined with the visitors’ highly solid defence, makes Under 3.5 goals the strongest option.

Beşiktaş come into this match on a five-game winning streak, averaging 1.2 goals scored and conceding none during that run, while Alanyaspor have won just one of their last five matches and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. The first half should be more evenly contested, however: the visitors were level at the break in 40% of their recent matches, while their average number of goals scored before half-time is just 0.6. Alanyaspor led at the break in 60% of their last five outings, but at the same time went on to lose or draw 80% of those matches. After the interval, the hosts conceded an average of 0.8 goals, whereas Beşiktaş kept a clean sheet in the second half in all five of their most recent matches. A half-time draw followed by Beşiktaş securing the win after the break is therefore the most likely outcome, making the HT/FT pick X/2.