Alanyaspor vs Göztepe: match statistics

Alanyaspor sit higher in the table, in 7th place, while Göztepe are 17th and have failed to win any of their four league matches. The hosts have won 2 of their last 5 games, averaging 1.4 points per match, whereas the visitors have lost 4 of their last 5 and average just 0.2 points per game. At home, Alanyaspor won their only match so far without conceding, although the 1.75 xG allowed serves as a warning sign. Göztepe create plenty away from home, averaging 14.5 shots and 2.5 goals, but they also concede as many as 3 goals per match, have yet to keep a clean sheet and allow opponents an xG of 2.48. Home advantage and the visitors’ very poor recent run point to Alanyaspor being a moderate favourite, although Göztepe’s attacking potential increases the risk of conceding.

The signal for both sides to score is clear, as Göztepe have recorded BTTS in 100% of away matches, while Alanyaspor have done so in 50%, compared with a league average of 53%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet under the conditions analyzed, and Göztepe concede an average of 3.0 goals away from home, significantly increasing the hosts’ chances of scoring. Alanyaspor create chances worth 1.95 xG at home and average 5.0 shots on target, while the visitors’ defense allows opponents 2.48 xG. The visitors also have attacking arguments: they score an average of 2.5 goals away from home, while the hosts concede an average of 2.5 there; even in their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, while Göztepe concede an average of as many as 3.0 goals per away game. Alanyaspor create chances worth an average of 1.95 xG at home and register 17.0 shots, while the visitors’ defence allows an average of 2.48 xG. Göztepe themselves score 2.5 goals per away game, and in every league match they have played so far, the total has exceeded both the 1.5 and 2.5 goal lines. In their last five matches, the visitors conceded 14 goals, or 2.8 per game, which clearly strengthens the case for at least two goals. The Over 2.5 line also has positive indicators, but the edge for Over 1.5 is more pronounced and less dependent on an exceptionally high conversion rate.

Alanyaspor are clearly the more solid side in terms of current form: they averaged 1.4 points and won 40% of their last five matches, while Göztepe failed to win any and lost 80% of them. The hosts tend to start matches well, leading at the break in 40% of their last five appearances without trailing in any, whereas the visitors were behind at half-time in 60% of their matches and conceded an average of 1.6 goals by then. Alanyaspor’s advantage is also evident in their defensive organisation before the break: they conceded just 0.2 goals, compared with 1.6 for Göztepe. Although the visitors average 5.5 shots on target and score 2.5 goals in the season data, their recent average of 2.8 goals conceded and an opposition xG of 2.48 favour the hosts. The most likely scenario is therefore an HT/FT 1/1 outcome, with Alanyaspor taking the lead before half-time and holding on to it until the final whistle.