Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor: match statistics

Trabzonspor arrives in excellent form — 5 wins in their last 5 matches and 11 goals in that period, equating to an average of 3.0 points per game; Alanyaspor over the last 5 fixtures has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss and averages 1.2 points per game. Offensively the visitors have a clear advantage: away, Trabzonspor scores 2.0 goals per game, registers 5.21 shots on target and has a 15% conversion rate, whereas Alanyaspor at home scores 1.21 goals with 4.57 shots on target and 9% conversion. In terms of quality of chances xG is comparable (Alanyaspor xG for 1.51 at home vs Trabzonspor xG for 1.46 away), but the visitors convert those chances more efficiently (2.0 goals vs 1.21 for the hosts), giving them a finishing edge. Alanyaspor’s defense at home looks solid (on average 0.86 goals conceded and 57% of matches with a clean sheet), however the hosts fail to score in 36% of home games, while Trabzonspor fail to score in only 14% of away matches, which reduces the risk of a goalless draw; considering the visitors’ 71% away win rate this season and recent trends, I predict a Trabzonspor victory and assess their chances at 65%.

Both teams have season BTTS of 64% and 60% in the last 5 matches respectively, providing a strong baseline for a both-teams-to-score scenario. Alanyaspor has not had a match without scoring this season (0%), while Trabzonspor failed to score in only 14% of matches, so the risk of either side being shut out is low. Both teams score frequently and create chances: on average 1.93 (Alanyaspor) and 2.00 (Trabzonspor) goals per match and concede 0.93 and 1.21 goals, with xG 1.84 (home) vs 1.46 (away) and 17.14 vs 13.36 shots. In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 11 and conceded 4, while the hosts have scored 9 and conceded 5, further confirming both teams’ consistency in scoring and conceding. Based on this I assess BTTS - Yes at 78% and No at 22%, selecting Yes as the strongest signal.

A model averaging the team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s defensive xG gives expected goals of 1.72 for Alanyaspor (1.84 own xG vs 1.59 conceded xG) and 1.36 for Trabzonspor (1.46 own xG vs 1.27 conceded xG), total ~3.08. Seasonal averages show 1.93 goals scored for Alanyaspor and 2.00 for Trabzonspor with average goals conceded 0.93 and 1.21, confirming both teams’ offensive intent. Over stats indicate: Home Over1.5 79% and Away Over1.5 71%, Over2.5 50% vs 64%, Over3.5 36% vs 29%, and both teams score in 64% of matches, which increases the probability of multiple goals. In the last 5 matches both sides have Over2.5 in 60% of games, and the combined xG 3.08 is clearly above the league average 2.59, so the strongest signal from the data is Over1.5 (high confidence). Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line (forecast ~86% for Over1.5), Over 2.5 remains realistic (~66%), while Over 3.5 is less likely (~33%).

The most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw with an away win (X/2) — I rate it at 19%. I expect an even picture at the break: Alanyaspor average 0.79 goals scored by HT and 0.57 conceded, while Trabzonspor average 0.93 scored and 0.71 conceded, with HT draw rates of 43% for the home side and 36% for the visitors (hence a high overall HT draw share around 42%). After the break the advantage shifts to the visitors: Trabzonspor have won 5 of their last 5 matches (100% in last five form), boast a 71% away win rate and have scored 8 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 3 for Alanyaspor, which increases the chances of a turnaround and an away victory after a HT stalemate. Additionally Alanyaspor generate more home xG (1.84 vs 1.46) and more shots (17.14 vs 13.36), but Trabzonspor are more efficient (15% conversion vs 11%), so despite the hosts’ creative edge I expect the visitors to be more clinical and to tilt the result in their favor after the break.