AlbinoLeffe vs Athletic Carpi: match statistics

AlbinoLeffe come into this match with an identical record from their last five games to Athletic Carpi: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, averaging 1.4 points per game. However, they also have home advantage. The hosts are still unbeaten at home and drew their only home fixture, while Carpi lost their only away match so far, conceding 3 goals. AlbinoLeffe allow opponents a higher average xG—2.24 compared with Carpi’s 1.73—but the visitors have conceded as many as 11 goals in their last five matches, compared with 6 conceded by the hosts. Carpi have created slightly more quality away from home, recording an average xG of 1.45 versus AlbinoLeffe’s 1.19. However, their poor defensive efficiency on the road increases the hosts’ chances of capitalising on their opportunities. A closely contested, goal-filled match is expected, but AlbinoLeffe hold a slight edge.

Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate this season, and neither has kept a clean sheet, which strongly supports goals at both ends. In their last 5 matches, the BTTS rate stands at 80% for each side, with AlbinoLeffe averaging 1.6 goals scored and Athletic Carpi 2.0. The hosts average 9 shots on target per match, while Carpi have conceded an average of 2.2 goals in their last five appearances, making a home goal highly likely. Carpi have a lower seasonal scoring average of 1.0 goals, but they create chances worth 1.45 xG and will face an AlbinoLeffe defence allowing opponents 2.02 xG. Although the league-wide BTTS average is only 45%, both teams have a considerably more open profile: all of their matches so far have featured BTTS with at least 3 goals.

The latest results of both teams point to an open game profile: AlbinoLeffe averaged 1.6 goals scored in their last five matches, while Athletic Carpi averaged 2.0. Carpi conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game during this period, while the hosts scored 8 goals in five appearances, strengthening the case for at least two goals. Their attacking potential is also reflected in the average xG figures: 1.48 for AlbinoLeffe and 1.63 for Carpi, with xG conceded at 1.35 and 1.51 respectively. At least three goals were scored in 80% of each team’s last five matches, and both teams scored in 80% of those games, although the small sample size calls for caution with higher lines. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.85 goals provides a clear margin above this line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an AlbinoLeffe win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 of 5 for Athletic Carpi. AlbinoLeffe scored only 0.2 goals on average before the break during this period, but netted an average of 1.4 goals after half-time and did not lose any second half. Carpi started more actively, leading at the break in 40% of their recent matches and scoring an average of 1.0 first-half goals, so the possibility of a lead for the visitors at half-time remains a significant risk. However, the hosts’ advantage should increase towards the end: they average 15 shots, including 9 on target, compared with Carpi’s 10 shots and just 1 on target, while their xG stands at 2.01 against 1.45 for their opponents. In addition, Carpi have recently conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match, whereas AlbinoLeffe allowed opponents just 0.4 goals after the break, supporting a turnaround or a home win after a half-time draw.