Albirex Niigata vs Consadole Sapporo: match statistics

Consadole Sapporo opened the season with a 2:0 victory, putting them top of the table, while Albirex Niigata lost their opening match 0:1. The visitors have also shown slightly more consistent form over their last five matches, collecting 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws, compared with Albirex’s 7 points. Sapporo’s advantage is particularly evident defensively, having conceded just 2 goals in their last five matches, compared with Albirex’s 4. The hosts have scored 4 goals during this period, while the visitors have scored 6, indicating greater attacking potential from the away side. Sapporo’s low number of goals conceded increases the likelihood that they will capitalise on their superior form and secure a win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as BTTS occurred in only 40% of Albirex’s last five matches and 20% of Consadole’s. During this period, Albirex averaged 0.8 goals scored, while Consadole conceded just 0.4 goals per game, significantly limiting the hosts’ chances of finding the net. The hosts also conceded only 0.8 goals on average, while the competition has a low BTTS rate of 20% and averages 1.8 goals per match. Although the xG figures from the last five matches are fairly similar—1.34 for Albirex and 1.41 for Consadole—past finishing efficiency and defensive performances more strongly support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Data from the last five matches points to a moderate scoring tempo: Albirex averaged 0.8 goals, while Consadole averaged 1.2, for a combined total of just 2.0 goals per game. Both defenses also looked solid, with the home side conceding an average of 0.8 goals and the visitors just 0.4. In matches involving these teams, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 40% and 20% of cases, respectively, while the league averages 1.8 goals per match and only 10% of games end with at least three goals. Although the average xG from the last five appearances is higher—1.34 for Albirex and 1.41 for Consadole—both sides’ actual finishing efficiency remained lower. The projected total of 2.10 goals provides a clear safety margin for the Under 3.5 goals pick.

The strongest signal is a cautious start to the match: Albirex were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches, and did not score a single first-half goal during that period. In their last five appearances, Consadole averaged just 0.4 goals before the break and kept a clean sheet in the first half in as many as 80% of those matches. After the interval, both teams average a similar 0.8 goals scored, but Consadole concede just 0.2 goals per match, which favours maintaining an evenly balanced scoreline. Although Albirex won their only previous home match 2-0 and recorded an xG of 1.54, their current form is less convincing: they average 0.8 goals per match, compared with Consadole’s 1.2. Therefore, the most likely outcome remains a draw both at half-time and at full-time (X/X).