Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis: match statistics
Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Albirex Niigata played Tokushima Vortis in J2 League (Japan). The match was played on 3 October 2026. Venue: Denka Big Swan Stadium. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Albirex Niigata: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Tokushima Vortis: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Albirex Niigata scores 1.38 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Tokushima Vortis scores 1.00 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.68 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Albirex Niigata 50%, Tokushima Vortis 25%. Over 2.5: Albirex Niigata 63%, Tokushima Vortis 38%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Albirex Niigata has higher xG: 1.26 vs 1.16. Albirex Niigata: 10.4 shots per match, Tokushima Vortis: 9.3.
Match halves
Albirex Niigata: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.88. Tokushima Vortis: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Albirex Niigata: 46-60 (3 goals). Tokushima Vortis: 31-45+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
J2 League: 2.68 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Albirex Niigata have won all 4 of their matches at home so far, while Tokushima Vortis have lost 3 of their 4 away games. The hosts average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded at home, while the visitors score 0.75 goals and concede 2 on the road. Albirex’s advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances: they average 1.15 xG at home, compared with Tokushima’s 0.73 xG away, and also register more shots on target — 3.5 versus 1.25 per match. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but the hosts’ defensive solidity at home and the visitors’ poor away record point to an Albirex win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal points to Tokushima failing to score: away from home, they average 0.75 goals, create chances worth 0.73 xG, and manage just 1.25 shots on target per match. Albirex have kept a clean sheet in every home game so far, and the rate of home matches in which both teams have scored stands at 0%. The hosts also have the stronger attacking potential, averaging 1.58 xG at home compared with the visitors’ 0.73, while Tokushima concede an average of 2 goals away from home. Confidence in the pick is tempered by both teams having conceded an average of 1.8 goals each over their last five matches. However, Tokushima’s weaker away attack makes BTTS - No—the outcome in which at least one team fails to score—more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in Albirex’s home matches, while it was exceeded in 25% of Tokushima’s away fixtures. The hosts score an average of 1.25 goals at home and have kept a clean sheet in every home match included in the data, while the visitors average 0.75 goals away from home. Albirex, however, have a clear edge in chance creation, with an average xG of 1.58 compared with Tokushima’s 0.73; Tokushima also concede an average of 2.0 goals away. Caution is warranted, as the last five matches for both teams have averaged 3.2 goals, so the 2.5-goal forecast gives the Under 3.5 line a greater edge than Under 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is Albirex Niigata leading at the break and winning the match: the hosts led at half-time in 2 of the 4 matches analysed, while Tokushima were behind at half-time in 2 of 4 and never led. Albirex scored an average of 0.5 goals before the break, while the visitors conceded 1.5 goals per match in that period, pointing to an early home advantage. Across the full matches, the hosts won 75% of their games, while the visitors lost 75% of theirs, conceding an average of 2 goals. Albirex’s attacking edge is further supported by an xG of 1.58 compared with Tokushima’s 0.73, as well as an average of 5 shots on target per match against 1.25. A half-time draw followed by a home win remains a notable alternative, as both teams drew the first half in 2 of their 4 matches.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Albirex Niigata | Tokushima Vortis | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tokushima Vortis is 20% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Albirex Niigata · 2.4 pts / match - Tokushima Vortis
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Albirex Niigata is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Albirex Niigata · 1 goals / match - Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis is 50% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Albirex Niigata · 1 goals / match - Tokushima Vortis
Albirex Niigata scores in 75% of matches (6 of 8 matches), while Tokushima Vortis keeps a clean sheet in 63% (5 of 8 matches).
Tokushima Vortis scores in 75% of matches (6 of 8 matches), while Albirex Niigata keeps a clean sheet in 25% (2 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Albirex Niigata
Over / Under - Tokushima Vortis
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tokushima Vortis is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Albirex Niigata · 1.25 pts / match - Tokushima Vortis
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Albirex Niigata - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tokushima Vortis - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Albirex Niigata
Tokushima Vortis
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (J2 League).
Teams vs league
| Albirex Niigata | Liga | Tokushima Vortis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.88 | 2.68 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | • 50% | 49% | ▼ 25% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 49% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 30% | ▲ 63% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 69% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 81% | ▼ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis?
The J2 League match finished Albirex Niigata 2:1 Tokushima Vortis. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis?
Albirex Niigata score 1.38 goals per game on average and Tokushima Vortis 1.00. The J2 League average is 2.68 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Albirex Niigata's matches and 25% of Tokushima Vortis's.
What form are Albirex Niigata and Tokushima Vortis in?
Over the last 5 games Albirex Niigata have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Tokushima Vortis 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis?
The statistical background for Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.