Alcione vs Pro Vercelli: match statistics

Alcione performs significantly better in home matches, boasting a 50% win rate and an impressive +11 goal difference. The hosts stand out with a solid defense, conceding an average of just 0.44 goals per game at home and keeping clean sheets in 63% of their matches. Pro Vercelli has a very poor away form with a 56% loss rate and a negative -10 goal difference, conceding an average of 1.75 goals per match. The recent form of both teams is similar (0.8 points per game each), but Alcione's home advantage and the visitors' defensive issues point to a home win. The xG statistics are close, but Alcione's significantly better defensive efficiency in home games gives them a clear advantage.

Alcione has a low seasonal BTTS rate (35%) and a high clean sheet percentage (41%), which limits Pro Vercelli's chances of scoring despite their average of 1.13 goals per match. On the other hand, the visitors' defense is weak (1.75 goals conceded per match and only 13% clean sheets), so Alcione has a realistic chance to score, but their last 5 home matches show only 0.4 goals per match and an xG for of 0.92, which increases the risk that they themselves will not score. Pro Vercelli has a BTTS rate of 56% and over 2.5 at 56%, however their current form is also not strong (1.0 goals per match in the last 5 and a losing streak), and Alcione has been conceding only 1.0 goal per match recently. Combining the hosts' stronger defense with Alcione's reduced attacking efficiency shifts the balance towards a scenario where one of the teams fails to score. Therefore, the more likely outcome is BTTS: No.

The goal model based on xG and offensive-defensive profiles indicates 2.54 total goals (1.42–1.12), meaning the outcome most often falls below 4 goals. Seasonal data supports Under 3.5: Alcione have 76% U3.5 matches, and Pro Vercelli 69%, with low Over 3.5 shares (24% and 31% respectively). Despite Pro Vercelli's weak defense (1.75 goals conceded/match, only 13% clean sheets), the hosts have significantly reduced their output in the last 5 matches (0.4 goals and 0.92 xG per match), which limits the chances of a very high-scoring game. At the same time, Over 1.5 remains realistic (65% and 81% in the season), but the goal distribution more often ends in the 2–3 goal range than 4+. Compared to the league average (2.28 goals/match and only 41% Over 2.5), the most stable and 'safe' signal from the data is Under 3.5.

The strongest signal points towards a draw at half-time: Alcione very frequently draws at HT (53%), and in the last 5 matches, both teams had as many as 80% draws at the break, with a very low average of goals in the first half (Alcione last5 AVGHT 0.2; Pro Vercelli 0.4). In the second half, the advantage shifts towards the hosts: Alcione has a clearly better PPG after the break (1.41 vs 0.75) and a much better goal difference in the second half (gd_2hg -1 vs -10). Pro Vercelli has a poor defense over the course of the season (1.75 goals conceded per match) and a very high loss rate (56%), which increases the chance they will lose the lead in the closing stages. At the same time, Alcione's form in the last5 (0 wins, 80% draws, only 0.4 goals scored per match) boosts the X/X scenario as an alternative, but the second-half profile and the visitors' defensive weakness more strongly support X/1.