Aldershot Town vs Gateshead: match statistics

Aldershot Town are the favourites: they have won 43% of their home matches, while Gateshead have lost every away game. The hosts average 1.57 goals at home, whereas the visitors score just 0.43 and concede as many as 2.86 goals per away match. Aldershot’s advantage in chance creation is reflected in their average xG of 1.21, compared with Gateshead’s 0.85; the visitors have failed to score in 57% of their away matches. Neither side has enjoyed a successful run over their last five games, but the hosts have collected 4 points and conceded 9 goals, while the visitors have managed just 1 point and conceded 13. Aldershot’s recent defensive struggles give Gateshead a chance to score, but the visitors’ serious problems at both ends of the pitch clearly point towards a home win.

The strongest indication against both teams scoring is Gateshead’s lack of efficiency: the visitors average just 0.43 goals per match and have failed to score in 57% of their games. Their average xG is 0.85, and they register 2.43 shots per match, compared with Aldershot’s 1.11 xG and 3.17 shots on target. The hosts do concede an average of 1.83 goals, so the visitors cannot be ruled out from scoring, but Gateshead have managed just 3 goals in their last five matches. Both teams have scored in 50% of Aldershot’s matches and 43% of Gateshead’s, both below the league average of 64%. Although that figure rose to 60% across the teams’ last five appearances, the visitors’ weak attack tips the balance slightly towards BTTS - No, meaning at least one team is expected not to score.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: this line was surpassed in 86% of Gateshead’s matches and 67% of Aldershot’s. The visitors concede an average of 2.86 goals, rising to 2.6 across their last five matches, increasing the likelihood of the hosts scoring multiple goals despite their average of just 0.83 goals scored. Gateshead score only 0.43 goals per match and have failed to score in 57% of their games, making higher lines less reliable. Although Over 2.5 goals landed in 86% of the visitors’ matches, this was the case in only 33% of the hosts’ games; the 1.5 line therefore offers a clearer edge, with a forecast of 2.60 goals.

The strongest pick is a draw at half-time and an Aldershot Town win at full-time. The hosts were level at the break in 4 of their 6 matches and have not led at half-time, while both teams have scored very few goals before the break: 0.17 and 0.14 per match, respectively. The hosts’ chances improve after half-time, as Gateshead concede an average of 2.0 goals in the second half, while Aldershot score 0.67. The hosts’ advantage in the full-time result is also supported by their season-long figures: Gateshead have lost every match so far and concede an average of 2.86 goals, compared with 1.83 conceded by Aldershot. Although the visitors were trailing at half-time in 5 of their 7 matches, Aldershot’s lack of half-time leads and better prospects after the break make the X/1 scenario the strongest option.