Aldosivi vs Unión Santa Fe: match statistics

Aldosivi remain without a home win, but as many as 80% of their home matches end in draws, with just 0.4 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. The hosts have failed to score in 60% of their home fixtures, limiting their chances of making home advantage count despite an xG of 1.49. Unión Santa Fe average 1.31 goals away from home, with a shot conversion rate of 11% compared to Aldosivi’s 3%, but they also concede a high 1.77 goals per match and have kept no clean sheets. Both teams are in poor form: Aldosivi have collected 2 points from their last 5 matches, while Unión have taken 3, with respective goal records of 3:6 and 4:8. The hosts’ low attacking output and the visitors’ defensive issues point most strongly towards a tight, relatively low-scoring draw.

Although both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, their current attacking efficiency is limited: Aldosivi score an average of 0.6 goals, while Unión score 0.8 goals per match. Unión have failed to score in 38% of their matches this season, while Aldosivi have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games, significantly increasing the risk of the visitors drawing a blank. The hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 2.21 xG and 6.1 shots on target, while Unión concede an average of 1.77 goals, making an Aldosivi goal with no reply from the opposition the most realistic scenario. Additionally, the league has a low BTTS rate of 42% and averages just 2.06 goals per match, so the slightly stronger pick is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score.

Aldosivi create plenty of chances at home, with an average xG of 2.21 and 6.1 shots on target per match, while Unión concede an average of 1.77 goals away from home. At the same time, the hosts have scored only 0.6 goals per match across their last five games, while Unión have managed 0.8, clearly limiting the prospects of a very high-scoring game. Aldosivi’s defense concedes an average of 0.8 goals and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of matches, which is why the visitors are priced below one goal. The 3.5 line is also supported by historical data: 80% of Aldosivi’s matches and 69% of Unión’s matches have ended with fewer than four goals, compared with a league average of just 2.06 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, as the model expects around 2.20 goals, while a four-goal outcome would require a significant overperformance relative to both teams’ current scoring efficiency.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Aldosivi win after 90 minutes, as both teams often start cautiously: the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their matches, compared with 31% for Unión, while averaging just 0.9 and 1.15 goals respectively in the first halves. In their last five matches, Aldosivi scored only 0.2 goals before half-time and Unión 0.25, further supporting the possibility of an undecided first half. After the break, the hosts’ advantage should grow: Aldosivi average 0.8 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, whereas Unión concede as many as 1.31 goals per second half. The hosts’ prospects of securing the win are also supported by their higher xG, 2.21 compared with 1.42, an average of 20.9 shots versus 12.23, and Unión’s 54% loss rate over the season. In HT/FT terms, the most likely pick is X/1.