Alemannia Aachen vs Jahn Regensburg: match statistics

Alemannia Aachen sit 4th, while Jahn Regensburg are 18th, and the current form also clearly favors the hosts: Aachen have collected 10 points from their last 5 matches, compared with just 3 for Regensburg. The hosts have scored 14 goals during this period—twice as many as their opponents, who have conceded as many as 11 goals in their last five fixtures. At home, Aachen create chances worth an average of 1.47 xG and register 5.5 shots on target per match, whereas Regensburg allow opponents 1.72 xG away from home. The visitors can be effective on the road, averaging 3 goals scored, but their defense concedes as many as 3.5 goals per match and has kept no clean sheets. Both teams have defensive issues, but Aachen’s superior form, greater attacking output, and Regensburg’s poor run point to a home win.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as Jahn Regensburg have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, while Alemannia Aachen stand at 50%, compared with the league average of 57%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, with the hosts averaging 2.8 goals and the visitors 1.4. The defenses look vulnerable: Aachen have conceded 1.2 goals per match recently, while Regensburg have conceded as many as 2.2, with neither team keeping a clean sheet this season. The hosts create an average of 1.64 xG, while the visitors produce 1.12 xG. Regensburg also allow opponents 1.72 xG, strengthening the chances of an Aachen goal. The “Yes” pick is preferred, although the hosts’ lower seasonal average of 0.5 goals leaves a moderate risk that one side fails to score. Therefore, BTTS - No means that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Aachen averaged 2.8 goals scored in their last five matches, while Regensburg conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game. Aachen’s matches during this period produced an average of 4.0 goals, compared with 3.6 goals in Regensburg’s games, both clearly above the league average of 3.3. Both teams also have poor clean-sheet records in their respective conditions, standing at 0% each, while Regensburg scored and conceded in 100% of their away matches so far. Over their last five appearances, Aachen’s average xG was 1.52 and Regensburg’s 1.42, with 1.39 and 1.54 xG conceded by these teams, respectively. The 2.5 line also has supporting arguments, but Over 1.5 is clearly the safer option with a projected total of 3.10 goals.

Alemannia Aachen are in clearly better current form: they have won 60% of their last five matches, while Jahn Regensburg have lost 80% of theirs. Over this period, the hosts averaged 2.8 goals per match, while the visitors conceded 2.2, strongly supporting an Aachen win scenario. Before half-time, Aachen were leading in 60% of their recent matches and scored an average of 1.0 goal, whereas Regensburg led in only 20% of their games and scored just 0.4 goals. After the break, the hosts’ advantage remains evident, as they average 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while Regensburg concede an average of 1.6 goals. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT scenario in which the hosts lead at the break and maintain their winning position until full-time.