Alianza Atlético vs Atlético Grau: match statistics
Alianza Atlético vs Atlético Grau: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Alianza Atlético played Atlético Grau in Primera División (Peru). The match was played on 3 April 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Alianza Atlético: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Atlético Grau: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Alianza Atlético scores 0.88 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. Atlético Grau scores 0.38 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.56 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Alianza Atlético 38%, Atlético Grau 25%. Over 2.5: Alianza Atlético 25%, Atlético Grau 25%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Alianza Atlético has higher xG: 1.32 vs 1.29. Alianza Atlético: 12.1 shots per match, Atlético Grau: 11.8.
Match halves
Alianza Atlético: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.63. Atlético Grau: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.13.
Goals by minute
Alianza Atlético: 61-75 (3 goals). Atlético Grau: 31-45+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.56 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Alianza Atlético holds a clear home advantage: 0% home defeats, 50% wins and 50% draws, 100% clean sheets and an average of 0 goals conceded in home matches. The hosts score on average 1 goal per home match, have an average xG of 1.31 and register 4.5 shots on target with a conversion rate of 9%, reflecting quality and chance execution. Atlético Grau have yet to win away (0% wins), have lost 75% of away fixtures, score 0.25 goals per away match and concede 1.5, and fail to score in 75% of away games. The gap in conversion and quality is evident: visitors’ away xG is 1.09 versus the hosts’ 1.31, but goals are 0.25 vs 1.0 and conversion 2% vs 9%, suggesting the visitors fail in decisive moments. Considering also Alianza’s 1.6 average points in the last 5 matches versus Atlético Grau’s 1.0, I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal indicators clearly favor No BTTS: both teams have only 25% of matches with both teams scoring, and the home side keeps a clean sheet in 75% of games, which significantly reduces the probability of Goal/Goal. Visitors average just 0.25 goals per match on the season (0.6 in the last 5), while hosts in their last 5 matches averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, so statistically the hosts are the more likely source of goals. Although the hosts’ xG is 1.5 versus opponents’ xG of 1.44, and recent xG for both teams over five matches is approximately 1.41 and 1.47, low shot conversion (4% vs 2%) and the difference in shots on target (4.75 vs 3.0) suggest that the advantage in chances may not translate into both teams scoring. Seasonal goal totals confirm the defensive profile: hosts have scored 7 and conceded 6, visitors scored 3 and conceded 8, and while the league overall has 54% BTTS and a 2.56 goal average, these teams are clearly below that norm. In summary, the strongest signal from the data is No BTTS, so I assign 75% to 'No' and 25% to 'BTTS - Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Alianza Atlético (average of 1.50 home offensive xG and 1.44 xG conceded) and 1.13 for Atlético Grau (average of 1.09 away offensive xG and 1.17 xG conceded), totaling 2.60 expected goals. In the last 5 matches both teams produced approximately 2.88 xG combined (1.41 for the home side and 1.47 for the away), and shots on target were 4.75 vs 3.00 (7.75 total), which supports a higher-scoring outcome. Seasonal indicators are mixed: Alianza has 75% clean sheets and only 25% of matches over 1.5 goals, while Atlético Grau has 50% of matches over 1.5 and 25% clean sheets, so seasonal profiles partially counter the xG signal. Given the 2.60 expected goals, the stronger xG signals and the combined SOT total, I recommend Over 1.5 (80% probability); the 2.5 line has a moderate probability (~55%), and Over 3.5 is unlikely (~18%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select 1/1 as the most likely scenario (40%) because the home team led at half-time in 50% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 50.0) and did not concede before the break (concededAVGHT_home = 0.0, seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 100.0). Their attacking metrics confirm the advantage: home xG is 1.50 versus 1.09 for the visitors, average shots on target are 4.75 vs 3.0, and their shot conversion rate is higher (4.0 vs 2.0), giving them a greater chance to maintain the lead. The away side is weaker in attack and defense: seasonally they score 0.25 goals and concede 1.50 per game, and their win percentage is 0.0% (winPercentage_away = 0.0), so a turnaround after half-time is unlikely. Based on this I allocated the remaining probabilities: 30% to HT/FT draw (X/X), 19% to draw at HT then home win (X/1), 9% to home leading at HT then draw at full-time (1/X), and 1% each to the rarer scenarios 1/2 and X/2; scenarios starting with an away lead were given 0% in line with the data (leadingAtHT_away = 0.0).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Alianza Atlético | Atlético Grau | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Alianza Atlético is 20% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Alianza Atlético · 1 pts / match - Atlético Grau
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Alianza Atlético is 132% better for: goals scored per match.
0.88 goals / match - Alianza Atlético · 0.38 goals / match - Atlético Grau
Alianza Atlético is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.75 goals / match - Alianza Atlético · 1 goals / match - Atlético Grau
Alianza Atlético scores in 63% of matches (5 of 8 matches), while Atlético Grau keeps a clean sheet in 50% (4 of 8 matches).
Atlético Grau scores in 38% of matches (3 of 8 matches), while Alianza Atlético keeps a clean sheet in 50% (4 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Alianza Atlético
Over / Under - Atlético Grau
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Grau is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Alianza Atlético · 1.25 pts / match - Atlético Grau
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Alianza Atlético - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Atlético Grau - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 13%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Alianza Atlético
Atlético Grau
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Alianza Atlético | Liga | Atlético Grau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.63 | 2.56 | ▼ 1.38 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 55% | ▼ 25% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 49% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 27% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 64% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 63% | 79% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Alianza Atlético 1 - 1 - 0 Atlético Grau. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Alianza Atlético vs Atlético Grau?
The Primera División match finished Alianza Atlético 2:2 Atlético Grau. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Alianza Atlético and Atlético Grau?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Alianza Atlético won 1, Atlético Grau won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Alianza Atlético vs Atlético Grau?
Alianza Atlético score 0.88 goals per game on average and Atlético Grau 0.38. The Primera División average is 2.56 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Alianza Atlético's matches and 25% of Atlético Grau's.
What form are Alianza Atlético and Atlético Grau in?
Over the last 5 games Alianza Atlético have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Atlético Grau 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Alianza Atlético vs Atlético Grau?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Alianza Atlético vs Atlético Grau: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.