Alianza Atlético vs Sport Huancayo: match statistics

Alianza Atlético has a clear defensive advantage at home — conceding an average of 0.5 goals per match and recording 67% clean sheets at the stadium, while Sport Huancayo concedes an average of 2.0 goals away and has only 17% clean sheets on the road. The hosts also create more chances: on average 12.5 shots and 4.67 on target per home match versus 9.33 shots and 3.17 on target for Huancayo away; the home xG for Alianza is 1.37 compared to 1.10 xG for the visitors on the road. Alianza’s weakness is low finishing efficiency (conversion rate 8% and in 50% of home matches they fail to score), whereas Huancayo has a higher conversion of 11% and only 33% of away matches without a goal. Recent form over the last five matches gives a slight edge to the visitors (Huancayo 1.0 point in the last 5 matches vs 0.6 points for Alianza), but Huancayo have yet to win away (0% away wins) and possess a -6 goal difference on the road. Considering the hosts’ superior defense and greater chance creation, I forecast an Alianza win, although the match is likely to be low-scoring.

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from seasonal stats: both Alianza Atlético and Sport Huancayo have 67% of matches with both teams scoring, versus a league average of 56%, providing a solid basis for a "yes". Additionally, the hosts generate xG 1.70 with 5.0 shots on target, while the visitors’ defense concedes an average xG against of 1.52, increasing the likelihood of an Alianza goal. Sport Huancayo have scored 14 and conceded 18 this season, conceding on average 2.0 goals per match; in their last 5 games they have 80% BTTS with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, so they frequently both score and concede. Countering this is Alianza’s poorer form in the last five matches (only 0.6 goals per game and 40% BTTS), but their seasonal xG_for 1.70 versus the recent actual 0.6 goals indicates an efficiency problem rather than a lack of chances, therefore I classify BTTS as the more probable outcome.

I project a total of 2.58 goals in the match (expected goals: 1.61 for Alianza Atlético vs 0.97 for Sport Huancayo), which is a clear signal for Over 1.5. Alianza has season xG for 1.7 and xG against 0.84, while Sport Huancayo records xG for 1.1 and xG against 1.52; the combination of these values (1.7 with 1.52 → ~1.61 for the home side, 1.1 with 0.84 → ~0.97 for the away side) confirms greater chance creation from the hosts. Both teams have 83% of their season matches over 1.5 goals and 67% of matches with Both Teams to Score, and the league average is 2.7 goals per game — this strengthens the Over signal. I assess Over 2.5 as moderately likely at 62%: the home team has 50% of matches over 2.5, the away team 83%, and in the last 5 away matches Over 2.5 was 80% versus 40% for the hosts. Over 3.5 looks unlikely (0% for Alianza vs 33% for Sport Huancayo), therefore the best pick is Over 1.5.

First-half statistics clearly point to a draw at the break — the home team were level at half-time in 67% of their games and led in only 17%, while the visitors were also level at half-time in 67% and led in 17%. At the same time Alianza Atlético holds a clear advantage in chance creation: xG 1.7 versus 1.1 for Sport Huancayo, xG against 0.84 versus 1.52, on average 16 shots and 5 on target versus 9.33 and 3.17, giving them higher-quality opportunities. In second halves the home side performs better numerically — averaging 1.5 goals, 8 points gained and a positive goal difference of +1, whereas the visitors have only 2 points and a -5 goal difference, so Alianza more often decides matches after the break. On this basis the strongest signal is the scenario draw at half-time and home win in the match (X/1); I assign this 38% probability, while a draw after 90 minutes is assessed at 20% and a home lead from start to finish at 12%. Additionally, the high share of matches in which both teams scored (67% for each) confirms that goals can be expected after the break, but Alianza have the statistical edge to convert them.