Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso: match statistics

Alianza Lima are clear favourites thanks to their outstanding home form: they win 91% of such matches, score an average of 2.55 goals, and have not lost a single game on home soil. The hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 19.36 shots, 7.27 shots on target, and an xG of 2.09, while Deportivo Garcilaso manage just 0.45 goals and 2.82 shots on target per away match. Alianza’s defence concedes only 0.55 goals per home game, while the visitors fail to score in 55% of their away fixtures. Deportivo Garcilaso do arrive on the back of a run of 4 wins and a draw, but their away record shows only an 18% win rate and a negative goal difference of -5. The most likely outcome is a controlled home victory, with the hosts expected to exploit their advantage in chance quality and possession, averaging 61% compared with the opposition’s 43%.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Deportivo Garcilaso’s seasonal scoring record: the visitors average only 0.45 goals per match and have failed to score in 55% of their games. Their matches feature goals from both sides in just 27% of cases, clearly below Alianza Lima’s 67% and the league average of 56%. Alianza are highly dangerous at home, averaging 2.08 goals and 5.17 shots on target per match, making a home win with no need for the visitors to score the most realistic scenario. Garcilaso’s recent form has been better, as they have scored 1.8 goals across their last five matches, but they have also conceded just 0.4 goals per game, which further supports outcomes featuring a clean sheet for one side. In addition, the visitors have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their matches this season, so a 1:0 or 2:0 scoreline remains more likely than a goal exchange.

Alianza Lima averages 2.08 goals at home, while Deportivo Garcilaso concedes only 0.91 goals per away match and keeps a clean sheet in 45% of such games. The visitors are significantly less effective in attack: their away average stands at 0.45 goals, and they have failed to score in 55% of their matches away from home. The xG data points to a controlled game dominated by the hosts, as Alianza creates an average of 1.39 xG, while Garcilaso allows opponents 1.61 xG, without requiring an open game at both ends. Over 3.5 goals has landed in only 33% of Alianza’s matches and in just 9% of Garcilaso’s away fixtures, making Under 3.5 the strongest pick.

Alianza Lima win 75% of their home matches and score an average of 2.08 goals, while Deportivo Garcilaso score just 0.45 goals per away game. At half-time, however, a draw is the most likely outcome: the visitors were level at the break in 9 of their 11 away matches, or 82%, and their first halves produce an average of just 0.27 goals. The hosts clearly step up after the break, scoring an average of 1.33 goals, while their opponents concede 0.73 goals in this period. Alianza’s superiority is also evident in chance creation, as they average 5.17 shots on target compared with Garcilaso’s 2.82. Therefore, the HT/FT scenario of a half-time draw followed by a home win at the final whistle has the strongest foundations.