Alianza Lima vs Los Chankas: match statistics

Alianza Lima at home averages 2.71 goals per match, has an average xG of 2.05 and concedes only 0.57 goals per game, translating into 86% home wins and 0% defeats; the hosts average 18.71 shots with 7.43 on target and maintain 60% possession. Los Chankas away score an average of 1.29 goals, have xG 1.35 and concede 1.43 goals per match, taking 12.86 shots (5 on target) and keeping only 14% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Alianza scored 13 goals and recorded 4 wins and 1 draw (averaging 2.6 points per game), while Los Chankas scored just 3 goals with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 points per game). The difference in quality of chances is significant: xG for 2.05 vs 1.35 and xG against 0.73 vs 1.53 show Alianza creates better chances and concedes fewer. Considering also the higher shot conversion (15% vs 10%), greater shot volume and possession dominance, I project a home win.

Although Los Chankas have a seasonal BTTS rate of 71%, the dominant signal points to No BTTS in this match. Alianza Lima at home records clean sheets in 50% of matches and a seasonal BTTS of only 38%; in their last 5 home games they had BTTS in 40% of cases with an average 2.6 scored and 0.4 conceded goals. The visitors in their last 5 matches score 0.6 and concede 1.2 on average, and seasonally concede 1.43 goals per match, indicating difficulty scoring against better defenses. Additionally, the home conversion rate is 14% versus 10% for the visitors and recent xG is 1.92 for the home side vs 1.47 for the visitors, which reinforces the home advantage and the possibility of a clean sheet. As a result I assess BTTS - Yes at 35% and BTTS - No at 65%.

Alianza Lima shows a clear attacking form: in the last 5 matches they scored 13 goals (avg 2.6 per game) and their last 5 xG is 1.92, while Los Chankas have 3 goals in their last 5 (0.6 per game) and xG 1.47. Seasonally Alianza averages 1.75 goals scored and concedes 0.75, and Los Chankas score 1.29 and concede 1.43; Los Chankas’ matches have an 86% share of Over 1.5 on the season. Combining seasonal and recent xG (e.g. Alianza xG 1.38 seasonally and 1.92 in the last 5, and Los Chankas defensive xG_against around 1.53–1.54) yields expected goals of about 1.72 for the home side and 1.30 for the visitors, total ~3.02. A Poisson model with these values gives roughly an 80% probability for Over 1.5, ~58% for Over 2.5 and ~36% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5. Additionally, Alianza has higher shot efficiency (14% vs 10%) and averages 12.9 shots per game, which combined with Los Chankas conceding 1.43 goals increases the likelihood of at least two goals in the match.

Alianza Lima is the clear favorite: at home they win 88% of matches and average 2.63 points per game, while Los Chankas have 43% wins and 1.71 points per game. In the last five matches the hosts led at the break in 4 of 5 (80%) and in those games they averaged 1.4 goals by half-time, whereas the visitors have averaged 0.2 half-time goals in their last five. Over the season Alianza scores on average 0.88 goals by half-time and concedes 0.25, and their shot conversion rate is 14% versus 10% for Los Chankas; with similar xG of 1.38 vs 1.35 the hosts look more efficient at converting chances. From these figures the most likely scenario is a Half-Time/Full-Time 1/1 — I assess this outcome at roughly 60%, with alternatives being X/1 (draw at HT, home win FT) or X/X (draw/draw) estimated at around 10–12%.